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1. FC Nürnberg v VfL Wolfsburg

1. FC Nürnberg

4–4Full time

VfL Wolfsburg

2. Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Max-Morlock-Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01

1. FC Nürnberg 4–4 VfL Wolfsburg 1. FC NÜRNBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Nürnberg win~~42%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.868

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Nürnberg win at 42%.
0′Much as we predicted: 1. FC Nürnberg was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–34
13′12′ and it is 0–1: Hauke Wahl on the scoresheet for VfL Wolfsburg. 0–1 · 20–21–59
16′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
18′12′ and it is 0–1: Hauke Wahl on the scoresheet for VfL Wolfsburg. 0–1 · 19–22–60
21′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–22–60
28′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
31′VfL Wolfsburg ahead on 29′ through Muhammed Damar. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
34′VfL Wolfsburg ahead on 29′ through Muhammed Damar. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–85
37′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 5%)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 5%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 5%)
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 5%)
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 5%)
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' VfL Wolfsburg win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 5%)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Alessio Besio · Off: Alexander Bernhardsson
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Kento Shiogai · Off: Fabian Reese
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Mathys Angély · VfL Wolfsburg
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' VfL Wolfsburg · On: Maximilian Arnold · Off: Vinicius de Souza Costa
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: William Bøving · Off: Julian Justvan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: andrea ceresoli · Off: Eric Porstner
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Giannis Masouras · 1. FC Nürnberg
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kento Shiogai · VfL Wolfsburg
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Alexios Kalogeropoulos · 1. FC Nürnberg
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' 1. FC Nürnberg 3–3 VfL Wolfsburg · Mohamed Alì Zoma
91′PENALTY · 88' VfL Wolfsburg
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' 1. FC Nürnberg 3–3 VfL Wolfsburg · Alessio Besio
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' 1. FC Nürnberg 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg · Alessio Besio
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' 1. FC Nürnberg 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg · Giannis Masouras
97′⚽ GOAL · 97' 1. FC Nürnberg 4–4 VfL Wolfsburg · Giannis Masouras
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Nürnberg 4–4 VfL Wolfsburg
FT1. FC Nürnberg 4–4 VfL Wolfsburg · 1. FC Nürnberg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

1. FC Nürnberg win42%

Draw24%

VfL Wolfsburg win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Max-Morlock-Stadion

Referee · Lars Erbst

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg

4-2-3-1

1 J. Reichert

32 T. Janisch

4 A. Kalogeropoulos

20 F. Otto

41 E. Porstner

6 A. Markhiev

8 J. Fernandez

7 R. Ghrieb

10 J. Justvan

23 M. A. Zoma

19 P. Scobel

Coach · Miroslav Klose

Substitutes

13 · R. Lisewski

21 · G. Masouras

14 · A. Ceresoli

44 · K. El Haija

18 · R. Lubach

28 · C. Y. Moustfa

35 · M. Kornwachs Barjuan

9 · S. Haugen

11 · W. Boving

VfL Wolfsburg

4-1-4-1

30 J. Zielinski

2 K. Fischer

6 H. Wahl

22 M. Angely

21 J. Maehle

5 Vini Souza

17 A. Bernhardsson

31 Y. Gerhardt

20 M. Damar

11 F. Reese

19 R. Glatzel

Coach · Tobias Strobl

Substitutes

12 · P. Pervan

46 · D. Pernis

18 · J. Adjetey

25 · A. Zehnter

27 · M. Arnold

37 · E. Rexhbecaj

8 · B. Dardai

23 · A. Besio

7 · K. Shiogai

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg

4-2-3-1

1 J. Reichert

32 T. Janisch

4 A. Kalogeropoulos

20 F. Otto

41 E. Porstner

6 A. Markhiev

8 J. Fernandez

7 R. Ghrieb

10 J. Justvan

23 M. A. Zoma

19 P. Scobel

Coach · Miroslav Klose

Substitutes

13 · R. Lisewski

21 · G. Masouras

14 · A. Ceresoli

44 · K. El Haija

18 · R. Lubach

28 · C. Y. Moustfa

35 · M. Kornwachs Barjuan

9 · S. Haugen

11 · W. Boving

VfL Wolfsburg

4-1-4-1

30 J. Zielinski

2 K. Fischer

6 H. Wahl

22 M. Angely

21 J. Maehle

5 Vini Souza

17 A. Bernhardsson

31 Y. Gerhardt

20 M. Damar

11 F. Reese

19 R. Glatzel

Coach · Tobias Strobl

Substitutes

12 · P. Pervan

46 · D. Pernis

18 · J. Adjetey

25 · A. Zehnter

27 · M. Arnold

37 · E. Rexhbecaj

8 · B. Dardai

23 · A. Besio

7 · K. Shiogai

Our number · 1. fc nürnberg winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

42% The market39%

Us42%

~~Market~~39%

We make 1. FC Nürnberg a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. fc nürnberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Nürnberg win	42%	39%	+3
Draw	24%	24%	0
VfL Wolfsburg win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Both teams to score	63%	70%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	50%	−10
1. FC Nürnberg or draw	66%	63%	+3
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet	23%	–	–
VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.7 5.9 4.7 2.4 1 6.7 10.8 7.7 3.9 2 5.9 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 3.3 4.9 3.6 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Nürnberg down, VfL Wolfsburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,596 2. Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). VfL Wolfsburg away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.50 for VfL Wolfsburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

1. FC NÜRNBERG

WWWDWW3–0 · 4–2 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

VFL WOLFSBURG

DWWDLW0–0 · 1–0 · 5–2 · 4–4 · 0–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	+10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
5	VfL Wolfsburg	6	+7	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	+2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	+1	8
8	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
9	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
10	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
11	Hannover 96	6	−2	7
12	VfL Osnabrück	6	−3	7
13	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
14	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
15	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
16	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	−6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	−8	4