1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC NÜRNBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Nürnberg win~~44%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.757

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Nürnberg win at 44%.
0′KICK-OFF 1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern
2′Little has changed for our model: 1. FC Nürnberg 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–31
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' 1. FC Kaiserslautern
37′SUBSTITUTION · 35' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Styopa Mkrtchyan · Off: Fynn Otto
45′SECOND HALF 1. FC Nürnberg 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
47′10 shots for 1. FC Nürnberg, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–37–27
47′HALF-TIME 1. FC Nürnberg 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta · Off: Ibrahim Kanate
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Erencan Yardimci · Off: Miloš Luković
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was 1. FC Nürnberg win 36%)
53′1. FC Nürnberg have had 13 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–42–25
55′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–43–25
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–43–25
57′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–23–69
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' 1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' 1. FC Kaiserslautern win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 43%)
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Paul Joly · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
59′1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead on 58′ through Erencan Yardimci. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–70
61′16 shots for 1. FC Nürnberg, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–22–71
67′20 shots for 1. FC Nürnberg, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 5–21–74
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: William Bøving · Off: Rayan Ghrieb
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Fabian Kunze · Off: Erencan Yardimci
69′We said 1. FC Nürnberg at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' 1. FC Nürnberg win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Mergim Berisha · Off: Naatan Skyttä
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Marlon Ritter · Off: Mario Sauer
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Sigurd Haugen · Off: Julian Justvan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' 1. FC Nürnberg · On: Can Yahya Moustfa · Off: Rafael Lubach
88′26 shots for 1. FC Nürnberg, 11 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–93
91′28 shots for 1. FC Nürnberg, 12 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
91′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Maxwell Gyamfi · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1. FC Nürnberg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1. FC Nürnberg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Nürnberg 44%, draw 25%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 31%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on 1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC KaiserslauternBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

1. FC Nürnberg win44%

Draw25%

1. FC Kaiserslautern win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMax-Morlock-Stadion

RefereeMax Burda

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg

4-2-3-1

1. FC Kaiserslautern

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1. FC Nürnberg

1. FC Kaiserslautern

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg

4-2-3-1

1 J. Reichert

32 T. Janisch

4 A. Kalogeropoulos

20 F. Otto

41 E. Porstner

6 A. Marhiev

8 J. Fernandez

7 R. Ghrieb

10 J. Justvan

18 Rafael Lubach

19 P. Scobel

Coach · M. Klose

Substitutes

11 · W. Bøving

14 · Andrea Ceresoli

9 · S. Haugen

13 · Robin Lisewski

21 · G. Masouras

5 · S. Mkrtchyan

28 · Can Yaha Moustfa

16 · Marko Soldic

35 · M. Kornwachs Barjuan

1. FC Kaiserslautern

3-4-2-1

1 J. Krahl

33 J. Elvedi

4 M. Gyamfi

3 A. Murphy

26 P. Joly

8 S. Şahin

21 M. Sauer

22 Mika Haas

15 N. Skyttä

11 I. Kanate

45 M. Luković

Coach · T. Lieberknecht

Substitutes

6 · F. Kunze

9 · I. Prtajin

7 · M. Ritter

37 · Leon Robinson

39 · T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta

17 · E. Yardımcı

20 · M. Berisha

2 · S. Asta

34 · Y. Onohiol

Our number · 1. fc nürnberg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market45%

Us44%

~~Market~~45%

We make 1. FC Nürnberg a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern~~1.64 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 15~~2 v 5

~~The market · 1. FC Nürnberg win~~45% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. FC Nürnberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Nürnberg win	44%	45%	−1
Draw	25%	25%	0
1. FC Kaiserslautern win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	40%	−5
1. FC Nürnberg or draw	69%	70%	−1
1. FC Nürnberg clean sheet	27%	–	–
1. FC Kaiserslautern clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.8 6.3 4.6 2.1 1 7.8 11.7 7.4 3.3 2 6.8 9.0 6.0 2.7 3 3.7 4.9 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Nürnberg down, 1. FC Kaiserslautern across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,614 2. Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Nürnberg at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.34 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FCN 3–0 FCK · FCK 1–1 FCN · FCK 1–2 FCN · FCN 0–0 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

1. FC NÜRNBERG

WDWWDD4–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 4–4 · 1–1

1. FC KAISERSLAUTERN

WWLWDW2–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	9	+12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
4	1. FC Magdeburg	9	+8	16
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	−1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	−1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	−9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5