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1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC

1. FC Magdeburg

6–1Full time

Karlsruher SC

2. Bundesliga · SAT 24 OCT · Avnet Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

1. FC Magdeburg 6–1 Karlsruher SC 1. FC MAGDEBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Magdeburg win~~48%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.412

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.341

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Magdeburg win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: 1. FC Magdeburg was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–30
2′KICK-OFF 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Mateusz Zukowski · 1. FC Magdeburg
10′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–21–53
10′9′: Noel Eichinger on the scoresheet for Karlsruher SC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 25–21–53
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' 1. FC Magdeburg 0–1 Karlsruher SC
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Karlsruher SC win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was 1. FC Magdeburg win 47%)
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Karlsruher SC
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' 1. FC Magdeburg win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Karlsruher SC win 54%)
18′We published 1. FC Magdeburg at 48%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Karlsruher SC
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' 1. FC Magdeburg
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 45% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Sandro Tremoulet · Karlsruher SC
40′39′: Mateusz Zukowski on the scoresheet for 1. FC Magdeburg, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Karlsruher SC
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 72% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Barış Atik · 1. FC Magdeburg
45′HALF-TIME 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Karlsruher SC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Karlsruher SC · On: Rafael Pinto Pedrosa · Off: Sebastian Jung
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Karlsruher SC · On: Lilian Egloff · Off: Noel Eichinger
47′SECOND HALF 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Karlsruher SC
51′1. FC Magdeburg ahead on 51′ through Mateusz Zukowski. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0 Karlsruher SC · Mateusz Zukowski (penalty)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 93% now
52′We published 1. FC Magdeburg at 48%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
52′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
55′We published 1. FC Magdeburg at 48%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′Garcia MacNulty scores for 1. FC Magdeburg on 54′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Karlsruher SC
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Karlsruher SC · On: Louey Ben Farhat · Off: Sandro Tremoulet
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Karlsruher SC · On: Deniz Ofli · Off: Viktor Bergh
59′We published 1. FC Magdeburg at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' 1. FC Magdeburg 4–0 Karlsruher SC
60′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
60′59′: Emmanuel Iyoha on the scoresheet for 1. FC Magdeburg, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Roko Simic · Off: Mateusz Zukowski
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Herbert Bockhorn · Off: Alexander Nollenberger
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' 1. FC Magdeburg 5–0 Karlsruher SC
68′66′: Roko Simic on the scoresheet for 1. FC Magdeburg. 6–0 · 100–0–0
68′6 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' 1. FC Magdeburg 6–0 Karlsruher SC
70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' 1. FC Magdeburg
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Richmond Tachie · Off: Barış Atik
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Falko Michel · Off: Torben Müsel
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Karlsruher SC · On: Tim Civeja · Off: Kevin Wiethaup
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Leon Mergner · Off: Luka Hyryläinen
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' 1. FC Magdeburg 5–1 Karlsruher SC
84′Deniz Ofli scores for Karlsruher SC on 82′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
93′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' 1. FC Magdeburg 6–1 Karlsruher SC
94′90′: Leon Mergner on the scoresheet for 1. FC Magdeburg, making it 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Magdeburg 6–1 Karlsruher SC
FT1. FC Magdeburg 6–1 Karlsruher SC · 1. FC Magdeburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1. FC Magdeburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Magdeburg 48%, draw 23%, Karlsruher SC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

1. FC Magdeburg win48%

Draw23%

Karlsruher SC win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAvnet Arena

RefereeFelix Wagner

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg

4-3-3

Karlsruher SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1. FC Magdeburg

Karlsruher SC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	1. FC Magdeburg	8	+3	13
13	Karlsruher SC	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg

4-3-3

1 D. Reimann

28 P. Nadjombe

5 T. Müller

3 A. MacNulty

17 A. Nollenberger

38 L. Hyryläinen

11 F. Chávez

26 T. Müsel

8 E. Iyoha

22 M. Żukowski

23 B. Atik

Coach · P. Sander

Substitutes

35 · Magnus Elias Baars

7 · H. Bockhorn

15 · D. Heber

6 · P. Jaeckel

30 · N. Kruth

33 · Leon Mergner

21 · F. Michel

9 · R. Šimić

29 · R. Tachie

Karlsruher SC

4-2-3-1

1 H. Bernat

22 C. Kobald

28 M. Franke

24 S. Trémoulet

33 V. Bergh

7 K. Wiethaup

6 S. Väänänen

2 S. Jung

10 M. Wanitzek

11 N. Eichinger

13 S. Fukuda

Coach · M. Senft

Substitutes

30 · R. Himmelmann

3 · D. Ofli

36 · Rafael Pinto Pedrosa

15 · Paul Scholl

26 · D. H. Zor

25 · L. Egloff

23 · T. Civeja

19 · Louey Ben Farhat

37 · J. Ponente

Our number · 1. fc magdeburg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market52%

Us48%

~~Market~~52%

We make 1. FC Magdeburg a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC~~1.96 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 8~~6 v 13

~~The market · 1. FC Magdeburg win~~52% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. FC Magdeburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Magdeburg win	48%	52%	−4
Draw	23%	23%	0
Karlsruher SC win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	67%	64%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
1. FC Magdeburg or draw	70%	76%	−6
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet	22%	–	–
Karlsruher SC clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.7 4.3 3.6 1 5.6 9.6 6.9 3.5 2 6.0 8.9 6.7 3.4 3 3.9 5.8 4.4 2.2 4 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Magdeburg down, Karlsruher SC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,614 2. Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Karlsruher SC away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.51 for Karlsruher SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCM 1–3 KAR · KAR 1–0 FCM · KAR 3–1 FCM · FCM 2–2 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

1. FC MAGDEBURG

WLWDWL2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–2

KARLSRUHER SC

LDLLLW2–5 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	8	+3	13
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	8	0	11
9	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	Karlsruher SC	8	−4	8
14	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
15	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5