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1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96

1. FC Magdeburg

3–0Full time

Hannover 96

2. Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Avnet Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Hannover 96 1. FC MAGDEBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Magdeburg win~~40%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Magdeburg win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF 1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96
2′A goal for 1. FC Magdeburg on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–19–17
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Hannover 96
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' 1. FC Magdeburg 1–0 Hannover 96
3′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 1–0 · 64–19–16
6′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–16
17′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Emir Sahiti · Hannover 96
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0 Hannover 96 · Moritz-Broni Kwarteng
29′⚽ GOAL · 30' 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0 Hannover 96 · Emmanuel Iyoha
31′30′ and it is 2–0: Emmanuel Iyoha on the scoresheet for 1. FC Magdeburg. 2–0 · 88–9–3
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 40% at kick-off, 88% now
34′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–0 · 89–8–3
40′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
45′SECOND HALF 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0 Hannover 96
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hannover 96 · On: Husseyn Chakroun · Off: Emir Sahiti Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Hannover 96 · On: Waniss Taibi · Off: Franz Roggow Corrected
48′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 92–7–2
54′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Hannover 96 · Emmanuel Iyoha
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' 1. FC Magdeburg 2–0 Hannover 96 · Mateusz Zukowski
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Daniel Heber · Off: Tobias Müller Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Mateusz Zukowski · 1. FC Magdeburg
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Boris Tomiak · Hannover 96
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Hannover 96 · On: Benedikt Pichler · Off: Benjamin Källman Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hannover 96 · On: Virgil Ghiță · Off: Jean Hugonet Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Felipe Chávez · Off: Luka Hyryläinen Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Hannover 96 · On: Taycan Etcibasi · Off: Kolja Oudenne Corrected
85′We said 1. FC Magdeburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Hannover 96 · Emmanuel Iyoha
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
87′1. FC Magdeburg ahead on 86′ through Mateusz Zukowski. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Hannover 96 · Mateusz Zukowski
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Roko Simic · Off: Mateusz Zukowski Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Richmond Tachie · Off: Emmanuel Iyoha Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' 1. FC Magdeburg · On: Paul Jäckel · Off: Pierre Nadjombe Corrected
92′3–0 at the end. Our 40% on 1. FC Magdeburg comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' 1. FC Magdeburg win: 40% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Hannover 96
FT1. FC Magdeburg 3–0 Hannover 96 · 1. FC Magdeburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

1. FC Magdeburg win40%

Draw25%

Hannover 96 win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Avnet Arena

Referee · Sascha Stegemann

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg

4-2-3-1

1 D. Reimann

7 H. Bockhorn

5 T. Muller

3 A. Garcia MacNulty

28 P. Nadjombe

38 L. Hyrylainen

26 T. Musel

8 E. Iyoha

10 M. Kwarteng

23 B. Atik

22 M. Zukowski

Coach · Petrik Sander

Substitutes

30 · N. Kruth

15 · D. Heber

6 · P. Jaeckel

11 · F. Chavez

33 · L. Mergner

14 · T. Reitz

9 · R. Simic

29 · R. Tachie

35 · M. Baars

Hannover 96

3-1-4-2

30 L. Weinkauf

17 B. Allgeier

3 B. Tomiak

4 J. Hugonet

13 F. Roggow

33 M. Neubauer

23 S. T. Thordarson

10 M. Hartel

29 K. Oudenne

9 B. Kallman

44 E. Sahiti

Coach · Sandro Wagner

Substitutes

1 · P. Loretz

5 · V. Ghita

20 · I. Okon

38 · J. Reinhold

8 · W. Taibi

27 · H. Matsuda

14 · H. Chakroun

11 · B. Pichler

28 · T. Etcibasi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg

4-2-3-1

1 D. Reimann

7 H. Bockhorn

5 T. Muller

3 A. Garcia MacNulty

28 P. Nadjombe

38 L. Hyrylainen

26 T. Musel

8 E. Iyoha

10 M. Kwarteng

23 B. Atik

22 M. Zukowski

Coach · Petrik Sander

Substitutes

30 · N. Kruth

15 · D. Heber

6 · P. Jaeckel

11 · F. Chavez

33 · L. Mergner

14 · T. Reitz

9 · R. Simic

29 · R. Tachie

35 · M. Baars

Hannover 96

3-1-4-2

30 L. Weinkauf

17 B. Allgeier

3 B. Tomiak

4 J. Hugonet

13 F. Roggow

33 M. Neubauer

23 S. T. Thordarson

10 M. Hartel

29 K. Oudenne

9 B. Kallman

44 E. Sahiti

Coach · Sandro Wagner

Substitutes

1 · P. Loretz

5 · V. Ghita

20 · I. Okon

38 · J. Reinhold

8 · W. Taibi

27 · H. Matsuda

14 · H. Chakroun

11 · B. Pichler

28 · T. Etcibasi

Our number · 1. fc magdeburg winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

40% The market40%

Us40%

~~Market~~40%

We make 1. FC Magdeburg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. fc magdeburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Magdeburg win	40%	40%	0
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Hannover 96 win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	69%	−11
Both teams to score	61%	70%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	81%	86%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	49%	−13
1. FC Magdeburg or draw	65%	64%	+1
1. FC Magdeburg clean sheet	23%	–	–
Hannover 96 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.4 6.8 5.2 2.6 1 7.2 11.5 8.0 3.9 2 5.9 8.5 6.2 3.0 3 3.1 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Magdeburg down, Hannover 96 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,596 2. Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.88 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hannover 96 away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.46 for Hannover 96. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 11:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FCM 1–2 HAN · HAN 3–1 FCM · HAN 0–0 FCM · FCM 0–3 HAN

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

1. FC MAGDEBURG

LWWLWD1–6 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

HANNOVER 96

LLWDLW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	+10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
5	VfL Wolfsburg	6	+7	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	+2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	+1	8
8	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
9	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
10	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
11	Hannover 96	6	−2	7
12	VfL Osnabrück	6	−3	7
13	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
14	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
15	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
16	Holstein Kiel	7	−4	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	−6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	−8	4