1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum prediction · 2. Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Bochum 1. FC KAISERSLAUTERN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Kaiserslautern win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Kaiserslautern win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum
2′Much as we predicted: 1. FC Kaiserslautern was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–28
30′We published 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–8
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 VfL Bochum
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' 1. FC Kaiserslautern win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
31′A goal for 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–8
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
41′We published 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′SECOND HALF 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 VfL Bochum
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' 1. FC Kaiserslautern win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
49′HALF-TIME 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–0 VfL Bochum
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Karol Mets · VfL Bochum
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' VfL Bochum · On: Jarne Steuckers · Off: Gerrit Holtmann
62′We published 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Erencan Yardimci · Off: Ibrahim Kanate
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta · Off: Miloš Luković
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Tom Meyer · VfL Bochum
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Jan Elvedi · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
73′We published 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VfL Bochum · On: Berkan Taz · Off: Koji Miyoshi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' VfL Bochum · On: Charlie Patino · Off: Mats Henry Pannewig
74′We published 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Bochum
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' 1. FC Kaiserslautern win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
75′75′: Mario Sauer on the scoresheet for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Sean Klaiber · VfL Bochum
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Fabian Kunze · Off: Naatan Skyttä
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Simon Asta · Off: Paul Joly Corrected
82′We published 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Simon Asta · Off: Jan Elvedi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' VfL Bochum · On: Daniel Hanslik · Off: Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Marlon Ritter · Off: Mario Sauer
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Bochum
FT1. FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Bochum · 1. FC Kaiserslautern win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1. FC Kaiserslautern are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 46%, draw 26%, VfL Bochum 28%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL BochumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

1. FC Kaiserslautern win46%

Draw26%

VfL Bochum win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueFritz-Walter-Stadion

RefereeWolfgang Haslberger

Line-ups

1. FC Kaiserslautern

3-4-2-1

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1. FC Kaiserslautern

VfL Bochum

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
12	VfL Bochum	7	−2	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Kaiserslautern

3-4-2-1

1 J. Krahl

33 J. Elvedi

4 M. Gyamfi

3 A. Murphy

26 P. Joly

8 S. Sahin

21 M. Sauer

22 M. Haas

15 N. Skytta

11 I. Kanate

45 M. Lukovic

Coach · Torsten Lieberknecht

Substitutes

34 · Y. Onohiol

2 · S. Asta

7 · M. Ritter

37 · L. Robinson

6 · F. Kunze

9 · I. Prtajin

20 · M. Berisha

17 · E. Yardimci

39 · T. Tazemeta

VfL Bochum

4-2-3-1

1 T. Horn

2 S. Klaiber

15 M. Steinwender

5 K. Mets

32 M. Wittek

24 M. Pannewig

34 T. Meyer

7 C. Rasmussen

23 K. Miyoshi

17 G. Holtmann

33 P. Hofmann

Coach · Uwe Rosler

Substitutes

16 · T. Casali

4 · Y. Karademir

31 · L. Sawas

28 · C. Patino

10 · B. Taz

39 · L. Isbruch

19 · D. Hanslik

14 · J. Steuckers

29 · M. Ouro-Tagba

Our number · 1. fc kaiserslautern winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1. FC Kaiserslautern v VfL Bochum~~1.55 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 7~~6 v 12

~~The market · 1. FC Kaiserslautern win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. FC Kaiserslautern win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. The market has gone from 40% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Kaiserslautern win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
VfL Bochum win	28%	31%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw	72%	69%	+3
1. FC Kaiserslautern clean sheet	31%	–	–
VfL Bochum clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 7.2 4.5 1 9.8 12.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.1 4.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Kaiserslautern down, VfL Bochum across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,605 2. Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.0% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). VfL Bochum away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.17 for VfL Bochum. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VFL 3–2 FCK · FCK 3–2 VFL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

1. FC KAISERSLAUTERN

DWWLWD0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0

VFL BOCHUM

WLWDLL1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	1. FC Heidenheim	7	+2	14
4	1. FC Magdeburg	7	+5	13
5	VfL Wolfsburg	7	+7	12
6	1. FC Kaiserslautern	7	+2	12
7	FC St. Pauli	7	+2	10
8	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
9	Arminia Bielefeld	7	−1	8
10	VfL Osnabrück	7	−3	8
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	0	7
12	VfL Bochum	7	−2	7
13	Hannover 96	7	−5	7
14	SV Darmstadt 98	7	−6	7
15	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	7	−3	6
16	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5
17	Dynamo Dresden	7	−6	5
18	Karlsruher SC	7	−8	5