1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC prediction · 2. Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

1. FC KaiserslauternDrawHertha BSC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1. FC Kaiserslautern are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 42%, draw 26%, Hertha BSC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

1. FC Kaiserslautern win42%

Draw26%

Hertha BSC win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFritz Walter Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1. FC Kaiserslautern

Hertha BSC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1. fc kaiserslautern winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC~~1.54 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 25~~3 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Kaiserslautern win	42%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Hertha BSC win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw	68%	–	–
1. FC Kaiserslautern clean sheet	27%	–	–
Hertha BSC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.4 7.0 5.0 2.2 1 8.3 12.1 7.6 3.4 2 6.8 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 3.5 4.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Kaiserslautern down, Hertha BSC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,618 2. Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hertha BSC away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.32 for Hertha BSC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HER 0–1 FCK · HER 6–1 FCK · FCK 0–1 HER · HER 0–1 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 5 Sept

1. FC KAISERSLAUTERN

WLWDWW3–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

HERTHA BSC

WWWWDW2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	9	+12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	+9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	+5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	+8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	−1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	−1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	−9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5