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1. FC Heidenheim v Energie Cottbus

1. FC Heidenheim

1–1Full time

Energie Cottbus

2. Bundesliga · SAT 24 OCT · Voith-Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 Energie Cottbus 1. FC HEIDENHEIM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said 1. FC Heidenheim win~~52%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.944

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.987

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 43 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Heidenheim win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: 1. FC Heidenheim 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
1′KICK-OFF 1. FC Heidenheim v Energie Cottbus
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' 1. FC Heidenheim
20′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Marcel Lotka · Energie Cottbus
30′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 75–16–9
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 Energie Cottbus
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' 1. FC Heidenheim
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 47% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' King Samuel Manu · Energie Cottbus
40′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Energie Cottbus
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 19% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Energie Cottbus win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was 1. FC Heidenheim win 44%)
41′40′: Lucas Copado on the scoresheet for Energie Cottbus, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
45′SECOND HALF 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Energie Cottbus
47′HALF-TIME 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Energie Cottbus
48′SUBSTITUTION · 47' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Marcel Costly · Off: Julian Niehues
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' 1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 Energie Cottbus
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 41% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' 1. FC Heidenheim win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Energie Cottbus win 59%)
51′1. FC Heidenheim level it on 49′ through Oualid Mhamdi. 1–1. 1–1 · 40–36–23
52′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–37–23
53′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–38–23
53′10 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 39–38–23
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Energie Cottbus · On: Ryan Malone · Off: Tim Campulka
59′14 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 36–42–22
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was 1. FC Heidenheim win 39%)
62′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–21
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 Energie Cottbus
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' 1. FC Heidenheim win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 45%)
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' 1. FC Heidenheim
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 34% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was 1. FC Heidenheim win 79%)
65′16 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–47–20
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Alessandro Vogt · Off: Mikkel Kaufmann
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Energie Cottbus · On: Jannis Boziaris · Off: Leon Guwara
69′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–18
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Energie Cottbus · On: Jannis Zaydan · Off: Fousseny Doumbia Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Michael Heule · 1. FC Heidenheim
75′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
77′20 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 22–65–14
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Mathias Honsak · Off: Paul Hennrich
83′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–78–9
84′24 shots for 1. FC Heidenheim, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 12–80–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Energie Cottbus · On: Christian Kinsombi · Off: Dmytro Bogdanov
85′We said 1. FC Heidenheim at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 Energie Cottbus
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' 1. FC Heidenheim win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 82%)
87′GOAL DISALLOWED · 87' 1. FC Heidenheim
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 9% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was 1. FC Heidenheim win 93%)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Leart Paqarda · Off: Michael Heule
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' 1. FC Heidenheim win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 Energie Cottbus
FT1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 Energie Cottbus · 1. FC Heidenheim win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1. FC Heidenheim are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1. FC Heidenheim 52%, draw 22%, Energie Cottbus 26%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on 1. FC Heidenheim v Energie CottbusBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

1. FC Heidenheim win52%

Draw22%

Energie Cottbus win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueVoith-Arena

RefereePatrick Schwengers

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim

4-4-2

Energie Cottbus

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1. FC Heidenheim

Energie Cottbus

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
9	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim

4-4-2

33 T. Dähne

22 O. Mhamdi

6 P. Mainka

19 J. Föhrenbach

27 M. Heule

8 P. Hennrich

3 J. Schöppner

16 J. Niehues

10 C. Conteh

29 M. Kaufmann

11 B. Zivzivadze

Coach · F. Schmidt

Substitutes

1 · Frank Feller

24 · M. Costly

2 · M. Busch

17 · M. Honsak

20 · L. Kerber

28 · Adam Kölle

23 · L. Paqarada

4 · T. Siersleben

18 · A. Vogt

Energie Cottbus

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lotka

21 Luca Erlein

2 K. Manu

4 T. Campulka

25 L. Guwara

8 Lukas Michelbrink

23 Fousseny Doumbia

3 H. Rorig

10 T. Ciğerci

13 Dmytro Bohdanov

9 L. Copado

Coach · C. Wollitz

Substitutes

22 · Fabian Balg

7 · C. Kinsombi

16 · R. Malone

42 · J. Zaydan

43 · A. Reschke

29 · K. Kratzsch

30 · Max Böhnke

19 · J. Boziaris

Our number · 1. fc heidenheim winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market55%

Us52%

~~Market~~55%

We make 1. FC Heidenheim a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1. FC Heidenheim v Energie Cottbus~~2.06 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 9~~5 v 9

~~The market · 1. FC Heidenheim win~~55% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. FC Heidenheim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Heidenheim win	52%	55%	−3
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Energie Cottbus win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Both teams to score	65%	71%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	55%	−10
1. FC Heidenheim or draw	74%	76%	−2
1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet	25%	–	–
Energie Cottbus clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 4.0 3.1 1 6.2 9.5 6.2 2.9 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 3.0 3 4.6 6.2 4.3 2.0 4 2.4 3.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Heidenheim down, Energie Cottbus across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,614 2. Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Energie Cottbus away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.39 for Energie Cottbus. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

1. FC HEIDENHEIM

WWWDDL5–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

ENERGIE COTTBUS

LDWDLD3–4 · 4–4 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	8	+11	22
2	1. FC Nürnberg	8	+10	18
3	VfL Wolfsburg	9	+9	16
4	1. FC Kaiserslautern	8	+4	15
5	1. FC Heidenheim	8	0	14
6	1. FC Magdeburg	8	+3	13
7	FC St. Pauli	9	+2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	8	0	11
9	Energie Cottbus	8	−1	9
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	−1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	−4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	−4	8
13	Karlsruher SC	8	−4	8
14	VfL Bochum	9	−4	8
15	Hannover 96	8	−5	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	−10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	−2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	−4	5