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1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Heidenheim

0–0Full time

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2. Bundesliga · FRI 9 OCT · Voith-Arena

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

1. FC Heidenheim 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC HEIDENHEIM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1. FC Heidenheim win~~49%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.906

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.880

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said 1. FC Heidenheim win at 49%.
47′HALF-TIME 1. FC Heidenheim 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
51′SUBSTITUTION · 45' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Budu Zivzivadze · Off: Mikkel Kaufmann Corrected
51′SECOND HALF 1. FC Heidenheim 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Alex Murphy · Off: Maxwell Gyamfi Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Alessandro Vogt · Off: Christian Conteh Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta · Off: Mergim Berisha Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Ibrahim Kanate · Off: Marlon Ritter Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Leon Reid Robinson · Off: Jacob Rasmussen Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Kaiserslautern · On: Erencan Yardimci · Off: Naatan Skyttä Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' 1. FC Heidenheim · On: Yannik Wagner · Off: Paul Hennrich Corrected
FTFULL TIME 1. FC Heidenheim 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT1. FC Heidenheim 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1. FC Heidenheim win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

1. FC Heidenheim win49%

Draw23%

1. FC Kaiserslautern win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Voith-Arena

Referee · Florian Lechner

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim

4-4-2

33 T. Dahne

22 O. Mhamdi

6 P. Mainka

19 J. Fohrenbach

27 M. Heule

8 P. Hennrich

3 J. Schoppner

16 J. Niehues

10 C. Conteh

29 M. Kaufmann

17 M. Honsak

Coach · Frank Schmidt

Substitutes

1 · F. Feller

4 · T. Siersleben

28 · A. Kolle

23 · L. Paqarada

20 · L. Kerber

41 · M. Zrilic

11 · B. Zivzivadze

18 · A. Vogt

38 · Y. Wagner

1. FC Kaiserslautern

3-4-2-1

1 J. Krahl

33 J. Elvedi

4 M. Gyamfi

14 J. Rasmussen

26 P. Joly

6 F. Kunze

8 S. Sahin

22 M. Haas

15 N. Skytta

7 M. Ritter

20 M. Berisha

Coach · Torsten Lieberknecht

Substitutes

34 · Y. Onohiol

2 · S. Asta

3 · A. Murphy

21 · M. Sauer

37 · L. Robinson

17 · E. Yardimci

45 · M. Lukovic

39 · T. Tazemeta

11 · I. Kanate

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim

4-4-2

33 T. Dahne

22 O. Mhamdi

6 P. Mainka

19 J. Fohrenbach

27 M. Heule

8 P. Hennrich

3 J. Schoppner

16 J. Niehues

10 C. Conteh

29 M. Kaufmann

17 M. Honsak

Coach · Frank Schmidt

Substitutes

1 · F. Feller

4 · T. Siersleben

28 · A. Kolle

23 · L. Paqarada

20 · L. Kerber

41 · M. Zrilic

11 · B. Zivzivadze

18 · A. Vogt

38 · Y. Wagner

1. FC Kaiserslautern

3-4-2-1

1 J. Krahl

33 J. Elvedi

4 M. Gyamfi

14 J. Rasmussen

26 P. Joly

6 F. Kunze

8 S. Sahin

22 M. Haas

15 N. Skytta

7 M. Ritter

20 M. Berisha

Coach · Torsten Lieberknecht

Substitutes

34 · Y. Onohiol

2 · S. Asta

3 · A. Murphy

21 · M. Sauer

37 · L. Robinson

17 · E. Yardimci

45 · M. Lukovic

39 · T. Tazemeta

11 · I. Kanate

Our number · 1. fc heidenheim winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make 1. FC Heidenheim a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1. fc heidenheim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1. FC Heidenheim win	49%	50%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−1
1. FC Kaiserslautern win	27%	25%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
1. FC Heidenheim or draw	73%	75%	−3
1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet	27%	–	–
1. FC Kaiserslautern clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 5.2 3.7 1 7.4 10.5 6.7 3.0 2 7.1 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.4 5.7 3.8 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1. FC Heidenheim down, 1. FC Kaiserslautern across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,594 2. Bundesliga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1.33 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCK 2–2 FCH · FCH 2–2 FCK

Form · last six in 2. Bundesliga

1. FC HEIDENHEIM

WLWWWD4–3 · 1–4 · 5–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

1. FC KAISERSLAUTERN

DDWWLW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hertha BSC	6	+10	18
2	1. FC Nürnberg	6	+10	16
3	1. FC Heidenheim	6	+2	13
4	VfL Wolfsburg	6	+7	11
5	1. FC Kaiserslautern	6	+2	11
6	1. FC Magdeburg	6	+2	10
7	Energie Cottbus	6	+1	8
8	FC St. Pauli	6	0	7
9	VfL Bochum	6	−1	7
10	Hannover 96	6	−2	7
11	VfL Osnabrück	6	−3	7
12	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	6	−2	6
13	Arminia Bielefeld	6	−2	5
14	Karlsruher SC	6	−6	5
15	Eintracht Braunschweig	6	−1	4
16	Holstein Kiel	6	−3	4
17	Dynamo Dresden	6	−6	4
18	SV Darmstadt 98	6	−8	4