WIT Georgia v Varketili prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

WIT GeorgiaDrawVarketili

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Varketili 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varketili are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: WIT Georgia 29%, draw 26%, Varketili 45%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on WIT Georgia v VarketiliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

WIT Georgia win29%

Draw26%

Varketili win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueShevardeni Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

WIT Georgia

Varketili

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varketili winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Varketili a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · WIT Georgia v Varketili~~1.18 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 26 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 38 v 53~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Varketili win

Published at 44%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
WIT Georgia win	29%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Varketili win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
WIT Georgia or draw	55%	–	–
WIT Georgia clean sheet	23%	–	–
Varketili clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.8 9.9 7.9 4.2 1 7.4 11.7 8.3 4.4 2 4.7 6.7 4.9 2.5 3 2.0 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+WIT Georgia down, Varketili across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

WIT Georgia at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Varketili away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for WIT Georgia, 1.55 for Varketili. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VAR 1–0 WIT · WIT 2–2 VAR · VAR 1–3 WIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 26 Aug

WIT GEORGIA

WDWLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–3

VARKETILI

WDDLWD5–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	25	+56	56
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	+22	46
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	25	+10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	+3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	−15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	−37	14