Varketili v Irao prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VarketiliDrawIrao

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Varketili 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Varketili are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Varketili 66%, draw 20%, Irao 14%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Varketili v IraoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Varketili win66%

Draw20%

Irao win14%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Varketili

Irao

14Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Varketili	25	+44	56
7	Irao	25	+10	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varketili winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Varketili a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Varketili v Irao~~2.18 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 56 v 36~~2 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varketili win	66%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Irao win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Varketili or draw	86%	–	–
Varketili clean sheet	45%	–	–
Irao clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 6.1 4.1 1 10.7 9.1 3.8 2 11.4 8.8 3.8 3 8.2 6.1 2.6 4 4.7 3.4 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Varketili down, Irao across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varketili at home: 4.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Irao away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Varketili, 0.82 for Irao. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~IRA 0–1 VAR · IRA 1–3 VAR · VAR 0–0 IRA · VAR 1–4 IRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

VARKETILI

WDDLWD5–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

IRAO

LDLDLD2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	25	+56	56
2	Varketili	25	+44	56
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	+22	46
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43
6	WIT Georgia	25	+9	38
7	Irao	25	+10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	+3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	−15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	−37	14