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Varketili v Dinamo Tbilisi II

Varketili

3–0Full time

Dinamo Tbilisi II

Liga 3 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Varketili 3–0 Dinamo Tbilisi II VARKETILI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Varketili win~~65%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.187

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.201

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Varketili win65%

Draw20%

Dinamo Tbilisi II win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · varketili winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

65% The market63%

Us65%

~~Market~~63%

We make Varketili a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.3–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Varketili win	65%	63%	+1
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Dinamo Tbilisi II win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	62%	57%	+5
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	35%	+6
Varketili or draw	84%	84%	0
Varketili clean sheet	38%	–	–
Dinamo Tbilisi II clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 4.9 3.7 2.1 1 8.6 8.9 4.2 2 9.7 9.1 4.5 3 7.2 6.7 3.3 4 4.2 3.9 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Varketili down, Dinamo Tbilisi II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 657 Liga 3 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Varketili at home: 3.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Tbilisi II away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for Varketili, 0.99 for Dinamo Tbilisi II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–2 VAR

Form · last six in Liga 3

VARKETILI

WDWDDL4–0 · 0–0 · 5–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

DINAMO TBILISI II

WWDDWL4–3 · 5–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	22	+52	51
2	Varketili	22	+40	49
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	22	+18	41
4	Merani Tbilisi	22	+10	39
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	22	+11	34
8	Didube 2014	22	+6	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	22	+4	32
10	Margveti 2006	22	−5	30
11	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	22	−1	28
12	Kolkheti Khobi	22	−17	21
13	Gardabani	22	−35	16
14	Iveria Khashuri	22	−24	13
15	Betlemi	22	−41	13
16	Iberia 2010	22	−38	11