Merani Tbilisi v FC Iberia 1999 II prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Merani Tbilisi 0–4 FC Iberia 1999 II FC IBERIA 1999 II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Iberia 1999 II win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.536

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.680

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Iberia 1999 II win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Iberia 1999 II 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–26–40
1′KICK-OFF Merani Tbilisi v FC Iberia 1999 II
19′FC Iberia 1999 II find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–19–67
19′We said FC Iberia 1999 II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 13–19–67
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Merani Tbilisi 0–1 FC Iberia 1999 II
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' FC Iberia 1999 II win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 12–20–69
37′We said FC Iberia 1999 II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
37′We said FC Iberia 1999 II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Iberia 1999 II win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Merani Tbilisi 0–2 FC Iberia 1999 II
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' FC Iberia 1999 II win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
38′A goal for FC Iberia 1999 II on 37′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–7–90
45′HALF-TIME Merani Tbilisi 0–2 FC Iberia 1999 II
46′SECOND HALF Merani Tbilisi 0–2 FC Iberia 1999 II
59′We said FC Iberia 1999 II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
74′We said FC Iberia 1999 II at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Merani Tbilisi 0–3 FC Iberia 1999 II
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' FC Iberia 1999 II win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
75′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
75′FC Iberia 1999 II score on 74′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Merani Tbilisi 0–4 FC Iberia 1999 II
FTFULL TIME Merani Tbilisi 0–4 FC Iberia 1999 II
FTMerani Tbilisi 0–4 FC Iberia 1999 II · FC Iberia 1999 II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Iberia 1999 II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Merani Tbilisi 34%, draw 26%, FC Iberia 1999 II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Merani Tbilisi v FC Iberia 1999 IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Merani Tbilisi win34%

Draw26%

FC Iberia 1999 II win40%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Merani Tbilisi

FC Iberia 1999 II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	+18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	24	+11	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc iberia 1999 ii winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:16 · locked at kick-off

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make FC Iberia 1999 II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Merani Tbilisi v FC Iberia 1999 II~~1.37 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 43 v 43~~4 v 3

~~The market · FC Iberia 1999 II win~~33% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Iberia 1999 II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Merani Tbilisi win	34%	41%	−7
Draw	26%	26%	0
FC Iberia 1999 II win	40%	33%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	60%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Merani Tbilisi or draw	60%	67%	−7
Merani Tbilisi clean sheet	23%	–	–
FC Iberia 1999 II clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 8.2 6.4 3.3 1 7.3 11.7 8.2 4.2 2 5.3 7.4 5.5 2.8 3 2.5 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Merani Tbilisi down, FC Iberia 1999 II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 672 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Merani Tbilisi at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Iberia 1999 II away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Merani Tbilisi, 1.53 for FC Iberia 1999 II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FCI 1–0 MER · MER 3–3 FCI · FCI 1–1 MER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

MERANI TBILISI

WWWDDW4–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1

FC IBERIA 1999 II

DDDWDD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 4–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	24	+56	55
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	+18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	24	+11	43
5	Gonio	24	+9	41
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	24	+10	35
8	Didube 2014	24	+4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	24	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	24	−9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	−15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	−36	14