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Margveti 2006 v Guria

Margveti 2006

0–4Full time

Guria

Liga 3 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 14:32

Margveti 2006 0–4 Guria GURIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guria win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.222

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Margveti 2006 win18%

Draw20%

Guria win62%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guria winPublished 9 Oct 12:02

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Guria a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Margveti 2006 win	18%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Guria win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Margveti 2006 or draw	38%	–	–
Margveti 2006 clean sheet	12%	–	–
Guria clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%

0123450 4.5 7.7 8.7 6.5 3.8 1 3.7 8.9 9.0 6.6 3.8 2 2.3 4.8 5.0 3.7 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Margveti 2006 down, Guria across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 657 Liga 3 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Margveti 2006 at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Guria away: 3.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Margveti 2006, 2.26 for Guria. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GUR 5–0 MAR

Form · last six in Liga 3

MARGVETI 2006

DWWLWW1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 3–0

GURIA

WWWWWW5–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	22	+52	51
2	Varketili	22	+40	49
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	22	+18	41
4	Merani Tbilisi	22	+10	39
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	22	+11	34
8	Didube 2014	22	+6	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	22	+4	32
10	Margveti 2006	22	−5	30
11	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	22	−1	28
12	Kolkheti Khobi	22	−17	21
13	Gardabani	22	−35	16
14	Iveria Khashuri	22	−24	13
15	Betlemi	22	−41	13
16	Iberia 2010	22	−38	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

Head to head

Form · last six in Liga 3

The table