Lokomotivi Tbilisi v Gardabani prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lokomotivi TbilisiDrawGardabani

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lokomotivi Tbilisi 78%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotivi Tbilisi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokomotivi Tbilisi 78%, draw 14%, Gardabani 8%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Lokomotivi Tbilisi v GardabaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win78%

Draw14%

Gardabani win8%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueMikheil Meskhi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Gardabani

14Days since last match14

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotivi tbilisi winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

78% The market–

Us78%

We make Lokomotivi Tbilisi a 78% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokomotivi Tbilisi v Gardabani~~2.99 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 34 v 16~~10 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotivi Tbilisi win	78%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Gardabani win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw	92%	–	–
Lokomotivi Tbilisi clean sheet	50%	–	–
Gardabani clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 3.7 2.3 1 8.0 6.3 2.4 2 10.6 7.5 2.9 3 9.6 6.6 2.5 4 7.1 4.6 5 4.6 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotivi Tbilisi down, Gardabani across0–5 goals a side shown (88.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Gardabani away: 0.33 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.99 goals for Lokomotivi Tbilisi, 0.72 for Gardabani. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GAR 1–1 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

LOKOMOTIVI TBILISI

DDLWWL1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–2

GARDABANI

LWLLLL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	25	+56	56
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	+22	46
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	25	+10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	+3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	−15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	−37	14