Kolkheti Khobi v Margveti 2006 prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Kolkheti Khobi 2–2 Margveti 2006 KOLKHETI KHOBI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolkheti Khobi win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 2 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kolkheti Khobi win at 42%.
92′Margveti 2006 score on 81′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 4–93–3
93′We said Kolkheti Khobi at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–95–3
93′Margveti 2006 have had 16 attempts to 9 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 3–95–3
93′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 3–95–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Kolkheti Khobi win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Kolkheti Khobi 2–2 Margveti 2006
FTKolkheti Khobi 2–2 Margveti 2006 · Kolkheti Khobi win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kolkheti Khobi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolkheti Khobi 42%, draw 23%, Margveti 2006 35%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Kolkheti Khobi v Margveti 2006Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kolkheti Khobi win42%

Draw23%

Margveti 2006 win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenuePaata Tatarishvili Stadioni

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolkheti Khobi

Margveti 2006

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Margveti 2006	23	−9	30
12	Kolkheti Khobi	23	−15	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kolkheti khobi winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Kolkheti Khobi a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolkheti Khobi v Margveti 2006~~1.79 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 30~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kolkheti Khobi win

Published at 40%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolkheti Khobi win	42%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Margveti 2006 win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Kolkheti Khobi or draw	65%	–	–
Kolkheti Khobi clean sheet	21%	–	–
Margveti 2006 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.3 5.1 4.4 2.4 1 5.8 9.8 7.2 4.0 2 5.5 8.1 6.3 3.4 3 3.3 4.9 3.8 2.0 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolkheti Khobi down, Margveti 2006 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 664 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolkheti Khobi at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Margveti 2006 away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Kolkheti Khobi, 1.63 for Margveti 2006. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–2 KOL · MAR 2–0 KOL · KOL 1–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug

KOLKHETI KHOBI

WLDLLW3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 3–1

MARGVETI 2006

WWLWWL2–1 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	23	+56	54
2	Varketili	23	+43	52
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	23	+18	42
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	+10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	23	+11	35
8	Didube 2014	23	+4	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	+1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	+1	31
11	Margveti 2006	23	−9	30
12	Kolkheti Khobi	23	−15	24
13	Gardabani	23	−37	16
14	Betlemi	23	−40	16
15	Iveria Khashuri	23	−24	14
16	Iberia 2010	23	−39	11