Iveria Khashuri v Margveti 2006 prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Iveria KhashuriDrawMargveti 2006

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Iveria Khashuri 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iveria Khashuri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iveria Khashuri 51%, draw 22%, Margveti 2006 28%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Iveria Khashuri v Margveti 2006Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Iveria Khashuri win51%

Draw22%

Margveti 2006 win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iveria Khashuri

Margveti 2006

14Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iveria khashuri winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Iveria Khashuri a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iveria Khashuri v Margveti 2006~~2.10 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 34~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iveria Khashuri win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Margveti 2006 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Iveria Khashuri or draw	72%	–	–
Iveria Khashuri clean sheet	24%	–	–
Margveti 2006 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%

0123450 3.7 4.1 3.3 1 5.8 8.9 6.2 3.1 2 6.1 8.5 6.1 3.1 3 4.2 5.8 4.2 2.2 4 2.3 3.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iveria Khashuri down, Margveti 2006 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iveria Khashuri at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Margveti 2006 away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Iveria Khashuri, 1.50 for Margveti 2006. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–2 IVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

IVERIA KHASHURI

LDDDDW0–5 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 8–0

MARGVETI 2006

LWWLDW0–2 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	25	+56	56
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	+22	46
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	25	+10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	+3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	−15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	−37	14