Irao v Dinamo Tbilisi II prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Irao 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi II IRAO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Irao win~~44%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.872

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.845

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Irao win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Irao was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
1′KICK-OFF Irao v Dinamo Tbilisi II
29′A goal for Irao on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Irao 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi II
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Irao win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
30′We published Irao at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 70–19–11
45′7 shots for Dinamo Tbilisi II, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
45′HALF-TIME Irao 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi II
46′SECOND HALF Irao 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi II
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Irao win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
55′We published Irao at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
58′Dinamo Tbilisi II have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
68′We published Irao at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Irao win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
76′We published Irao at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
82′We published Irao at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′We said Irao at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–7
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Irao 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi II
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Irao win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Irao win 93%)
87′Dinamo Tbilisi II score on 86′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 8–86–6
88′Dinamo Tbilisi II have had 12 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 7–88–6
91′We said Irao at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Irao win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
FTFULL TIME Irao 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi II
FTIrao 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi II · Irao win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Irao are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Irao 44%, draw 24%, Dinamo Tbilisi II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Irao v Dinamo Tbilisi IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Irao win44%

Draw24%

Dinamo Tbilisi II win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueGrigol Jomartidze Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Irao

Dinamo Tbilisi II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Irao	24	+10	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	24	+3	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · irao winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market44%

Us44%

~~Market~~44%

We make Irao a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Irao v Dinamo Tbilisi II~~1.70 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 35 v 35~~7 v 9

~~The market · Irao win~~44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Irao win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Irao win	44%	44%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Dinamo Tbilisi II win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Irao or draw	68%	69%	−1
Irao clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dinamo Tbilisi II clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.7 6.0 4.5 2.2 1 7.6 10.8 6.9 3.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.7 2.7 3 3.8 4.9 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Irao down, Dinamo Tbilisi II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 672 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Irao at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Tbilisi II away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Irao, 1.41 for Dinamo Tbilisi II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–1 IRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

IRAO

WLDLDL1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 0–1

DINAMO TBILISI II

DDWLLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	24	+56	55
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	+18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	24	+11	43
5	Gonio	24	+9	41
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	24	+10	35
8	Didube 2014	24	+4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	24	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	24	−9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	−15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	−36	14