Iberia 2010 v Gardabani prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:02

Iberia 2010 3–0 Gardabani IBERIA 2010 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Iberia 2010 win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Iberia 2010 win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Iberia 2010 was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–21
1′KICK-OFF Iberia 2010 v Gardabani
45′HALF-TIME Iberia 2010 0–0 Gardabani
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Iberia 2010 win: 56% at kick-off, 47% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Iberia 2010 win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Draw 32%)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Iberia 2010 win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
46′SECOND HALF Iberia 2010 0–0 Gardabani
50′We said Iberia 2010 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–35–21
59′We said Iberia 2010 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–19
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Iberia 2010 win 38%)
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Iberia 2010 win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
65′We published Iberia 2010 at 56%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Iberia 2010 1–0 Gardabani
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Iberia 2010 win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Iberia 2010 win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
66′Iberia 2010 find the net on 65′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–3
69′We published Iberia 2010 at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Iberia 2010 2–0 Gardabani
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Iberia 2010 win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
71′A goal for Iberia 2010 on 69′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
82′We published Iberia 2010 at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Iberia 2010 3–0 Gardabani
90′Iberia 2010 score on 89′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′We said Iberia 2010 at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–0 · 5–93–3
92′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 5–93–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Iberia 2010 win: 56% at kick-off, 5% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Iberia 2010 win 5%)
FTFULL TIME Iberia 2010 3–0 Gardabani
FTIberia 2010 3–0 Gardabani · Iberia 2010 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iberia 2010 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Iberia 2010 56%, draw 21%, Gardabani 23%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Iberia 2010 v GardabaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Iberia 2010 win56%

Draw21%

Gardabani win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Iberia 2010

Gardabani

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Gardabani	23	−37	16
16	Iberia 2010	23	−39	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iberia 2010 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Iberia 2010 a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Iberia 2010 v Gardabani~~2.19 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~16 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Iberia 2010 win	56%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Gardabani win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Iberia 2010 or draw	77%	–	–
Iberia 2010 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Gardabani clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 4.3 4.1 2.9 1 6.9 9.2 5.6 2.5 2 7.4 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 5.3 6.1 3.8 4 3.1 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Iberia 2010 down, Gardabani across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 664 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Iberia 2010 at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gardabani away: 0.50 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Iberia 2010, 1.26 for Gardabani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GAR 1–5 IBE · GAR 2–0 IBE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug

IBERIA 2010

DLWWDL0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

GARDABANI

LLWLLL1–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	23	+56	54
2	Varketili	23	+43	52
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	23	+18	42
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	+10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	23	+11	35
8	Didube 2014	23	+4	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	+1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	+1	31
11	Margveti 2006	23	−9	30
12	Kolkheti Khobi	23	−15	24
13	Gardabani	23	−37	16
14	Betlemi	23	−40	16
15	Iveria Khashuri	23	−24	14
16	Iberia 2010	23	−39	11