Guria v WIT Georgia prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GuriaDrawWIT Georgia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Guria 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guria are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guria 66%, draw 19%, WIT Georgia 15%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Guria v WIT GeorgiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Guria win66%

Draw19%

WIT Georgia win15%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guria

WIT Georgia

7Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guria winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Guria a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guria v WIT Georgia~~2.31 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 26 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 56 v 38~~1 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guria win	66%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
WIT Georgia win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Guria or draw	85%	–	–
Guria clean sheet	41%	–	–
WIT Georgia clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 5.0 3.8 2.1 1 9.0 8.7 4.1 2 10.1 8.8 4.2 3 7.6 6.4 3.0 4 4.6 3.7 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guria down, WIT Georgia across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guria at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). WIT Georgia away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Guria, 0.93 for WIT Georgia. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~WIT 1–0 GUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 26 Aug

GURIA

WWWWDD2–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

WIT GEORGIA

WDWLWL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	25	+56	56
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	+22	46
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	25	+10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	+3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	−15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	−37	14