Guria v Varketili prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Guria 0–0 Varketili GURIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Guria win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.907

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Guria are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Guria 52%, draw 24%, Varketili 25%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Guria v VarketiliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Guria win52%

Draw24%

Varketili win25%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Guria

Varketili

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · guria winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Guria a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Guria v Varketili~~1.83 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 54 v 52~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Guria win

Published at 54%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Guria win	52%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Varketili win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Guria or draw	75%	–	–
Guria clean sheet	32%	–	–
Varketili clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 6.3 5.6 3.5 1 8.9 10.7 6.0 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.3 2.2 3 5.0 5.5 3.2 4 2.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Guria down, Varketili across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 664 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Guria at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Varketili away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Guria, 1.17 for Varketili. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VAR 1–1 GUR · GUR 0–2 VAR · VAR 4–0 GUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug

GURIA

WWWWWW2–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 4–0

VARKETILI

DWDDLW0–0 · 5–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	23	+56	54
2	Varketili	23	+43	52
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	23	+18	42
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	+10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	23	+11	35
8	Didube 2014	23	+4	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	+1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	+1	31
11	Margveti 2006	23	−9	30
12	Kolkheti Khobi	23	−15	24
13	Gardabani	23	−37	16
14	Betlemi	23	−40	16
15	Iveria Khashuri	23	−24	14
16	Iberia 2010	23	−39	11