Gonio v Merani Tbilisi prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GonioDrawMerani Tbilisi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Gonio 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gonio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gonio 56%, draw 24%, Merani Tbilisi 20%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Gonio v Merani TbilisiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Gonio win56%

Draw24%

Merani Tbilisi win20%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueKobuleti Football Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gonio

Merani Tbilisi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gonio winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Gonio a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gonio v Merani Tbilisi~~1.81 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 3 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 44 v 43~~4 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gonio win	56%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Merani Tbilisi win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Gonio or draw	80%	–	–
Gonio clean sheet	40%	–	–
Merani Tbilisi clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 7.6 5.8 3.0 1 11.1 11.0 5.0 2 10.1 9.2 4.4 3 6.1 5.6 2.7 4 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gonio down, Merani Tbilisi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 677 Liga 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 197 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gonio at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Merani Tbilisi away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Gonio, 0.95 for Merani Tbilisi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MER 1–1 GON · GON 2–5 MER · MER 0–3 GON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 3 Sept

GONIO

LLWLWW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

MERANI TBILISI

WWDDWL2–0 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	25	+56	56
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	25	+22	46
4	Gonio	25	+10	44
5	Merani Tbilisi	25	+7	43
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	25	+10	36
8	Dinamo Tbilisi II	25	+3	36
9	Didube 2014	25	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	25	−8	34
12	Kolkheti Khobi	25	−15	26
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	25	−37	14