Gonio v Irao prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Gonio 1–0 Irao GONIO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gonio win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.358

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.356

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gonio win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gonio 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Gonio v Irao
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Gonio
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Irao
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Gonio
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Gonio win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′Irao have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 41–37–22
45′HALF-TIME Gonio 0–0 Irao
46′SECOND HALF Gonio 0–0 Irao
49′We said Gonio at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–39–21
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Gonio win 37%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 36–43–20
55′8 shots for Irao, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–43–20
59′We said Gonio at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gonio win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
66′We said Gonio at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
73′We said Gonio at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–63–14
74′We said Gonio at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Gonio 1–0 Irao
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Gonio win: 51% at kick-off, 87% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Gonio win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
75′Gonio find the net on 74′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Irao
79′We said Gonio at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Gonio win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
86′We said Gonio at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
93′12 shots for Irao, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–0
FTFULL TIME Gonio 1–0 Irao
FTGonio 1–0 Irao · Gonio win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gonio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gonio 51%, draw 25%, Irao 24%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Gonio v IraoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Gonio win51%

Draw25%

Irao win24%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueKobuleti Football Center

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gonio

Irao

8Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	23	+11	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gonio winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Gonio a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gonio v Irao~~1.74 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 35~~6 v 7

~~The market · Gonio win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gonio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gonio win	51%	51%	0
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Irao win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Gonio or draw	76%	76%	0
Gonio clean sheet	34%	–	–
Irao clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.2 6.2 3.7 1 9.8 11.3 5.9 2.3 2 8.6 9.0 4.9 3 5.0 5.2 2.9 4 2.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gonio down, Irao across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 664 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gonio at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Irao away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Gonio, 1.10 for Irao. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IRA 4–0 GON · IRA 2–2 GON · GON 2–1 IRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug

GONIO

LDLLWL0–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

IRAO

LWLDLD1–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	24	+56	55
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	+18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	+10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	23	+11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	+4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	+1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	+1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	−9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	−15	25
13	Gardabani	24	−40	16
14	Betlemi	23	−40	16
15	Iveria Khashuri	23	−24	14
16	Iberia 2010	24	−36	14