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Gardabani v Kolkheti Khobi

Gardabani

1–3Full time

Kolkheti Khobi

Liga 3 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Gardabani 1–3 Kolkheti Khobi KOLKHETI KHOBI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kolkheti Khobi win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gardabani win34%

Draw23%

Kolkheti Khobi win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kolkheti khobi winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Kolkheti Khobi a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gardabani win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kolkheti Khobi win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Gardabani or draw	57%	–	–
Gardabani clean sheet	18%	–	–
Kolkheti Khobi clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.3 5.8 5.5 3.4 1 5.2 9.7 8.0 4.8 2.4 2 4.4 7.3 6.2 3.7 3 2.4 3.9 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gardabani down, Kolkheti Khobi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 657 Liga 3 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 177 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gardabani at home: 0.67 scored, 3.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kolkheti Khobi away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Gardabani, 1.83 for Kolkheti Khobi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KOL 2–1 GAR · KOL 6–1 GAR · GAR 2–1 KOL

Form · last six in Liga 3

GARDABANI

LLLWLL0–3 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3

KOLKHETI KHOBI

LWLDLL0–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	22	+52	51
2	Varketili	22	+40	49
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	22	+18	41
4	Merani Tbilisi	22	+10	39
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	22	+11	34
8	Didube 2014	22	+6	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	22	+4	32
10	Margveti 2006	22	−5	30
11	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	22	−1	28
12	Kolkheti Khobi	22	−17	21
13	Gardabani	22	−35	16
14	Iveria Khashuri	22	−24	13
15	Betlemi	22	−41	13
16	Iberia 2010	22	−38	11