Gardabani v Iveria Khashuri prediction · Liga 3

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

GardabaniDrawIveria Khashuri

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Iveria Khashuri 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Iveria Khashuri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gardabani 24%, draw 19%, Iveria Khashuri 57%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Gardabani v Iveria KhashuriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gardabani win24%

Draw19%

Iveria Khashuri win57%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gardabani

Iveria Khashuri

6Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	−16	17
14	Gardabani	24	−40	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · iveria khashuri winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Iveria Khashuri a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–2.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gardabani v Iveria Khashuri~~1.41 – 2.42

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 17~~14 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gardabani win	24%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Iveria Khashuri win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Gardabani or draw	43%	–	–
Gardabani clean sheet	12%	–	–
Iveria Khashuri clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.1%

0123450 3.2 5.3 6.0 4.7 3.0 1 3.5 8.1 8.0 5.9 3.7 2.12 2.9 5.5 5.6 4.1 2.5 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gardabani down, Iveria Khashuri across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 672 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gardabani at home: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Iveria Khashuri away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Gardabani, 2.42 for Iveria Khashuri. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IVE 1–1 GAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

GARDABANI

LWLLLL1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3

IVERIA KHASHURI

LDDDDW0–5 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 8–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	24	+56	55
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	+18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	24	+11	43
5	Gonio	24	+9	41
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	24	+10	35
8	Didube 2014	24	+4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	24	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	24	0	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	−9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	−15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	−16	17
14	Gardabani	24	−40	16
15	Betlemi	24	−48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	−36	14