Dinamo Tbilisi II v WIT Georgia prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 17:31

Dinamo Tbilisi II 3–1 WIT Georgia DINAMO TBILISI II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Tbilisi II win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Tbilisi II win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Tbilisi II was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–36
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Tbilisi II v WIT Georgia
5′Dinamo Tbilisi II score on 4′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–16
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Dinamo Tbilisi II 1–0 WIT Georgia
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
6′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–19–16
20′WIT Georgia find the net on 20′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–28–34
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Dinamo Tbilisi II 1–1 WIT Georgia
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Tbilisi II 1–1 WIT Georgia
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dinamo Tbilisi II win 33%)
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Tbilisi II 1–1 WIT Georgia
49′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 32–39–29
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
57′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it 73%. 2–1 · 73–20–6
57′A goal for Dinamo Tbilisi II on 57′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 73–20–6
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Dinamo Tbilisi II 2–1 WIT Georgia
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Dinamo Tbilisi II win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
58′A goal for Dinamo Tbilisi II on 56′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–20–6
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 74–20–6
60′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–5
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
70′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
77′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
82′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
86′Dinamo Tbilisi II score on 86′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Dinamo Tbilisi II 3–1 WIT Georgia
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Dinamo Tbilisi II win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′We published Dinamo Tbilisi II at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Tbilisi II 3–1 WIT Georgia
FTDinamo Tbilisi II 3–1 WIT Georgia · Dinamo Tbilisi II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinamo Tbilisi II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Tbilisi II 39%, draw 25%, WIT Georgia 35%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Tbilisi II v WIT GeorgiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Tbilisi II win39%

Draw25%

WIT Georgia win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueVitali Daraselia Academy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Tbilisi II

WIT Georgia

7Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

Last match: 8 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	+1	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo tbilisi ii winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:36 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Dinamo Tbilisi II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Tbilisi II v WIT Georgia~~1.53 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 38~~9 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Tbilisi II win

Published at 41%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Tbilisi II win	39%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
WIT Georgia win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Dinamo Tbilisi II or draw	65%	–	–
Dinamo Tbilisi II clean sheet	25%	–	–
WIT Georgia clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.5 7.3 5.5 2.7 1 7.6 11.5 7.7 3.7 2 6.0 8.0 5.6 2.7 3 3.1 4.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Tbilisi II down, WIT Georgia across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 664 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Tbilisi II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). WIT Georgia away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi II, 1.43 for WIT Georgia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WIT 3–2 DIN · DIN 2–1 WIT · WIT 0–1 DIN · DIN 2–0 WIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 20 Aug

DINAMO TBILISI II

WDDWLL5–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

WIT GEORGIA

LWDWLW2–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	23	+56	54
2	Varketili	23	+43	52
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	23	+18	42
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	+10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	+12	38
6	Gonio	23	+8	38
7	Irao	23	+11	35
8	Didube 2014	23	+4	34
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	+1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	+1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	−9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	−15	25
13	Gardabani	23	−37	16
14	Betlemi	23	−40	16
15	Iveria Khashuri	23	−24	14
16	Iberia 2010	23	−39	11