Didube 2014 v Gonio prediction · Liga 3

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Didube 2014 0–1 Gonio GONIO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gonio win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.567

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gonio win at 39%.
45′Gonio score on 31′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–21–70
45′We said Gonio at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
46′SECOND HALF Didube 2014 0–1 Gonio
60′We said Gonio at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Gonio win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
70′We said Gonio at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
77′We said Gonio at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Gonio win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
82′We said Gonio at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
89′We said Gonio at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Didube 2014 0–1 Gonio
FTDidube 2014 0–1 Gonio · Gonio win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Gonio just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Didube 2014 35%, draw 26%, Gonio 39%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Didube 2014 v GonioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Didube 2014 win35%

Draw26%

Gonio win39%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Didube 2014

Gonio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga 3 (Georgia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Gonio	24	+9	41
8	Didube 2014	24	+4	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gonio winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Gonio a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Didube 2014 v Gonio~~1.40 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 41~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Didube 2014 win	35%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Gonio win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Didube 2014 or draw	61%	–	–
Didube 2014 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Gonio clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 8.0 6.2 3.1 1 7.6 11.8 8.0 4.0 2 5.6 7.7 5.5 2.7 3 2.7 3.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Didube 2014 down, Gonio across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 672 Liga 3 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.7% of games this season, across 192 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Didube 2014 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gonio away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Didube 2014, 1.48 for Gonio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GON 1–2 DID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga 3 this season · since 27 Aug

DIDUBE 2014

LDLDLD0–3 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 4–4

GONIO

DLLWLW2–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Guria	24	+56	55
2	Varketili	24	+43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	+18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	24	+11	43
5	Gonio	24	+9	41
6	WIT Georgia	24	+10	38
7	Irao	24	+10	35
8	Didube 2014	24	+4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	24	+3	35
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	25	+3	34
11	Margveti 2006	24	−9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	−15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	25	−14	20
14	Gardabani	25	−42	16
15	Betlemi	25	−51	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	−36	14