Torpedo Kutaisi v Rustavi prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi TORPEDO KUTAISI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torpedo Kutaisi win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.763

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.667

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Kutaisi win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Torpedo Kutaisi v Rustavi
2′Much as we predicted: Torpedo Kutaisi was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–29
15′We said Torpedo Kutaisi at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 43% at kick-off, 18% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Rustavi win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Torpedo Kutaisi win 18%)
16′Rustavi find the net on 15′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
24′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Mateo Itrak · Torpedo Kutaisi
30′We said Torpedo Kutaisi at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Luka·Latsabidze · Torpedo Kutaisi
45′SECOND HALF Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi
47′HALF-TIME Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' prince osei · Rustavi
47′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Virgile Pinson · Torpedo Kutaisi
49′We said Torpedo Kutaisi at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: diego deisadze · Off: Mateo Itrak
52′7 shots for Torpedo Kutaisi, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–68
59′Torpedo Kutaisi have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 6–22–72
66′We said Torpedo Kutaisi at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rustavi · On: solomon kessi · Off: kenio jackson
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
74′Torpedo Kutaisi have had 12 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–81
74′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Rustavi · On: kevin ceijas · Off: Yuta nakano
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: Akaki Shulaia · Off: Virgile Pinson
74′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Nodar Lominadze · Torpedo Kutaisi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rustavi · On: mamuka kapanadze · Off: jean
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rustavi · On: Kakhaber Kakashvili · Off: Nikoloz Chikovani
80′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Mateo Stamatov · Torpedo Kutaisi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: luka kuprava · Off: Mateo Stamatov
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: Dino Skorup · Off: Nodar Lominadze
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rustavi · On: Martin Gambos · Off: Davit Ubilava
94′Full time, 0–1. We called Torpedo Kutaisi at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Torpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi
FTTorpedo Kutaisi 0–1 Rustavi · Torpedo Kutaisi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torpedo Kutaisi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torpedo Kutaisi 43%, draw 28%, Rustavi 29%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Torpedo Kutaisi v RustaviBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torpedo Kutaisi win43%

Draw28%

Rustavi win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueRamaz Shengelia Stadium

Line-ups

Torpedo Kutaisi

3-4-3

Rustavi

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torpedo Kutaisi

Rustavi

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Rustavi	28	+11	49
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	28	+9	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Torpedo Kutaisi

3-4-3

1 O. Goshadze

22 D. Bukia

4 M. Šimić

24 L. Latsabidze

8 M. Itrak

17 N. Lominadze

7 V. Mamuchashvili

33 M. Stamatov

14 Felipe Pires

9 K. Andrić

39 V. Pinson

Coach · D. Schuster

Substitutes

29 · M. Chitaishvili

35 · D. Deisadze

10 · G. Kokhreidze

38 · S. Kopaliani

15 · L. Kuprava

5 · T. Nadaraia

40 · A. Shulaia

20 · D. Skorup

Rustavi

4-3-1-2

21 P. Beruashvili

2 S. Andghuladze

4 David

3 V. Patsatsia

19 N. Chikovani

22 Y. Nakano

13 A. Gujabidze

40 D. Ubilava

7 K. S. Abdul

9 Jean

10 P. Osei

Coach · G. Tsetsadze

Substitutes

12 · T. Tarkashvili

20 · L. Parkadze

11 · S. Kessi

1 · S. Kardava

27 · M. Kapanadze

8 · K. Kakashvili

18 · N. Japaridze

23 · M. Gamboš

5 · Kevin William Ceijas

Our number · torpedo kutaisi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Torpedo Kutaisi a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torpedo Kutaisi v Rustavi~~1.43 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 49~~7 v 2

~~The market · Torpedo Kutaisi win~~38% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torpedo Kutaisi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torpedo Kutaisi win	43%	38%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Rustavi win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Torpedo Kutaisi or draw	71%	66%	+5
Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Rustavi clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.2 7.9 5.0 1 10.1 13.2 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.6 4.8 3 3.8 4.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torpedo Kutaisi down, Rustavi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,062 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 142 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torpedo Kutaisi at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rustavi away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Torpedo Kutaisi, 1.13 for Rustavi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RUS 1–0 TOR · TOR 1–1 RUS · RUS 1–0 TOR · RUS 2–4 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug

TORPEDO KUTAISI

LDDWLD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 3–3

RUSTAVI

DLDWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
2	Rustavi	28	+11	49
3	FC Iberia 1999	28	+9	49
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	28	+14	48
5	Dila	28	+6	40
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	28	+9	37
8	Gagra	29	−17	29
9	Spaeri	28	−9	26
10	Meshakhte	29	−27	17