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Spaeri v Torpedo Kutaisi

Spaeri

3–3Full time

Torpedo Kutaisi

Erovnuli Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Spaeri Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Spaeri 3–3 Torpedo Kutaisi TORPEDO KUTAISI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torpedo Kutaisi win~~48%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Kutaisi win at 48%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Torpedo Kutaisi 48% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 28–24–49
8′A goal for Spaeri on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 52–23–25
23′Lasha Kokhreidze scores for Spaeri on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 55–24–21
31′We said Torpedo Kutaisi at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
45′Torpedo Kutaisi ahead on 45′ through Komnen Andrić. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–18–75
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Spaeri win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Torpedo Kutaisi win 19%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Torpedo Kutaisi win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Spaeri win 6%)
45′SECOND HALF Spaeri 1–2 Torpedo Kutaisi
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
47′40′ and it is 1–2: Komnen Andrić on the scoresheet for Torpedo Kutaisi. 1–2 · 6–18–75
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Spaeri win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Torpedo Kutaisi win 19%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Torpedo Kutaisi win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Spaeri win 6%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Torpedo Kutaisi win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Spaeri win 6%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Torpedo Kutaisi win: 48% at kick-off, 19% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Spaeri win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Torpedo Kutaisi win 19%)
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spaeri · On: Zurab Golubiani · Off: Billy Jibril Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Spaeri
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Spaeri · On: Sienda Matenjva · Off: nika chagunava Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: Luka·Latsabidze · Off: luka kuprava Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Spaeri · On: d giorgi tsetskhladze · Off: Tamaz Tsetskhladze Corrected
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Torpedo Kutaisi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: diego deisadze · Off: Komnen Andrić Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: Nodar Lominadze · Off: Dino Skorup Corrected
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Spaeri 2–2 Torpedo Kutaisi · Komnen Andrić
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Torpedo Kutaisi · On: Tsotne Nadaraia · Off: Virgile Pinson Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 81' Spaeri 2–2 Torpedo Kutaisi · Zurab Golubiani
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' diego deisadze · Torpedo Kutaisi
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Spaeri 2–3 Torpedo Kutaisi · Zurab Golubiani
98′🟨 YELLOW · 96' d giorgi tsetskhladze · Spaeri
98′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Spaeri
98′⚽ GOAL · 98' Spaeri 2–3 Torpedo Kutaisi
100′⚽ GOAL · 100' Spaeri 3–3 Torpedo Kutaisi · Zurab Golubiani
FTFULL TIME Spaeri 3–3 Torpedo Kutaisi
FTSpaeri 3–3 Torpedo Kutaisi · Torpedo Kutaisi win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Spaeri win27%

Draw25%

Torpedo Kutaisi win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Spaeri Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Spaeri

4-2-3-1

1 B. Putkaradze

22 N. Chagunava

3 L. Kachibaia

31 G. Bunturi

14 G. Samkharadze

10 T. Tsetskhladze

6 T. Askurava

26 B. Jibril

19 G. Tsirdava

7 S. Gegiadze

17 L. Kokhreidze

Coach · Anzor Kighuradze

Substitutes

23 · N. Chomakhidze

4 · G. Grigalashvili

5 · T. Tsalughelashvili

9 · G. Tsetskhladze

13 · S. Mathenjwa

20 · N. Kentchadze

25 · R. Injgia

30 · Z. Basilashvili

8 · S. Maisuradze

24 · Z. Golubiani

Torpedo Kutaisi

4-2-3-1

1 O. Goshadze

15 L. Kuprava

22 D. Bukia

4 M. Simic

20 D. Skorup

8 M. Itrak

7 V. Mamuchashvili

11 G. Arabidze

14 Felipe Pires

39 V. Pinson

9 K. Andric

Coach · Dirk Schuster

Substitutes

38 · S. Kopaliani

5 · T. Nadaraia

13 · G. Katkov

17 · N. Lominadze

19 · D. Pertaia

24 · L. Latsabidze

25 · G. Gergedava

35 · D. Deisadze

40 · A. Shulaia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Spaeri

4-2-3-1

1 B. Putkaradze

22 N. Chagunava

3 L. Kachibaia

31 G. Bunturi

14 G. Samkharadze

10 T. Tsetskhladze

6 T. Askurava

26 B. Jibril

19 G. Tsirdava

7 S. Gegiadze

17 L. Kokhreidze

Coach · Anzor Kighuradze

Substitutes

23 · N. Chomakhidze

4 · G. Grigalashvili

5 · T. Tsalughelashvili

9 · G. Tsetskhladze

13 · S. Mathenjwa

20 · N. Kentchadze

25 · R. Injgia

30 · Z. Basilashvili

8 · S. Maisuradze

24 · Z. Golubiani

Torpedo Kutaisi

4-2-3-1

1 O. Goshadze

15 L. Kuprava

22 D. Bukia

4 M. Simic

20 D. Skorup

8 M. Itrak

7 V. Mamuchashvili

11 G. Arabidze

14 Felipe Pires

39 V. Pinson

9 K. Andric

Coach · Dirk Schuster

Substitutes

38 · S. Kopaliani

5 · T. Nadaraia

13 · G. Katkov

17 · N. Lominadze

19 · D. Pertaia

24 · L. Latsabidze

25 · G. Gergedava

35 · D. Deisadze

40 · A. Shulaia

Our number · torpedo kutaisi winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

48% The market38%

Us48%

~~Market~~38%

We make Torpedo Kutaisi a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · torpedo kutaisi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spaeri win	27%	35%	−8
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Torpedo Kutaisi win	48%	38%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
Spaeri or draw	52%	62%	−10
Spaeri clean sheet	17%	–	–
Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.8 7.4 7.3 4.4 2.0 1 5.1 11.3 9.1 5.5 2.5 2 3.9 6.7 5.8 3.5 3 2.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spaeri down, Torpedo Kutaisi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spaeri at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Kutaisi away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Spaeri, 1.80 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:51. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~TOR 0–0 SPA · SPA 1–1 TOR · TOR 1–2 SPA

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga

SPAERI

LLDDLL3–4 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4

TORPEDO KUTAISI

DLDDWL2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	+15	48
2	Dinamo Batumi	27	+10	47
3	Rustavi	27	+9	46
4	FC Iberia 1999	27	+8	46
5	Dila	27	+8	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	27	+9	36
7	Samgurali	27	−14	32
8	Gagra	27	−12	29
9	Spaeri	27	−9	25
10	Meshakhte	27	−24	17