Spaeri v Gagra prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Spaeri 0–0 Gagra SPAERI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spaeri win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.830

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spaeri win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spaeri 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Spaeri v Gagra
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Spaeri
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Spaeri
42′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Guram Goshteliani · Gagra
45′SECOND HALF Spaeri 0–0 Gagra
46′HALF-TIME Spaeri 0–0 Gagra
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gagra · On: Viktor Bliznichenko · Off: Givi khachidze
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Spaeri win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Spaeri win 37%)
53′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–24
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–44–24
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Gagra
59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gagra · On: alexander feikrishvili · Off: Guram Goshteliani
61′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' nika chagunava · Spaeri
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spaeri · On: Revazi Injgia · Off: Billy Jibril
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spaeri · On: saba maisuradze · Off: Zurab Golubiani
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gagra · On: Illia skrypnyk · Off: gela sadghobelashvili
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Gagra · On: Nikita Slavitski · Off: davit mujiri
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Spaeri win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
69′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–18
77′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–69–13
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Spaeri win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Gagra · On: Luka Gurchiani · Off: pedro borges
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spaeri · On: d giorgi tsetskhladze · Off: Saba gegiadze
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Spaeri
80′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
84′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–7
87′We said Spaeri at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–7–93
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Spaeri 0–1 Gagra
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Spaeri win: 45% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Gagra win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 87%)
88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 88' Gagra
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Gagra win 93%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Spaeri · On: zakaria basilashvili · Off: Lasha Kokhreidze
92′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Spaeri · On: Temuri tsalughelashvili · Off: Gocha tsirdava
FTFULL TIME Spaeri 0–0 Gagra
FTSpaeri 0–0 Gagra · Spaeri win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spaeri are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spaeri 45%, draw 26%, Gagra 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Spaeri v GagraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Spaeri win45%

Draw26%

Gagra win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueSpaeri Stadium

Line-ups

Spaeri

4-2-3-1

Gagra

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spaeri

Gagra

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Gagra	29	−17	29
9	Spaeri	29	−11	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spaeri

4-2-3-1

1 B. Putkaradze

22 N. Chagunava

20 N. Kentchadze

31 G. Bunturi

14 G. Samkharadze

10 Tamaz Tsetskhladze

24 Z. Golubiani

26 B. Jibril

19 G. Tsirdava

7 S. Gegiadze

17 L. Kokhreidze

Coach · A. Kighuradze

Substitutes

30 · Z. Basilashvili

23 · N. Chomakhidze

25 · R. Injgia

8 · S. Maisuradze

13 · S. Mathenjwa

2 · giorgi pirtakhia

5 · T. Tsalughelashvili

9 · G. Tsetskhladze

3 · L. Kachibaia

Gagra

4-1-4-1

1 O. Vorobey

22 G. Sadghobelashvili

5 Y. Nazarov

2 Augusto

40 Claudinei

6 M. Tsintsadze

7 P. Borges

30 G. Goshteliani

25 Wanderson

19 G. Khachidze

9 D. Mujiri

Coach · V. Khachidze

Substitutes

23 · A. Andreychuk

18 · V. Bliznichenko

3 · O. Chochia

35 · Alexander Timchenko

33 · L. Gurchiani

21 · alexander feikrishvili

8 · I. Skrypnyk

15 · Nikita Slavitski

17 · Vinicius Cesar

Our number · spaeri winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Spaeri a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spaeri v Gagra~~1.61 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 26 v 29~~9 v 8

~~The market · Spaeri win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spaeri win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spaeri win	45%	45%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Gagra win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Spaeri or draw	71%	71%	0
Spaeri clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gagra clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.0 6.5 4.6 1 8.5 12.2 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 8.9 5.5 2.4 3 4.0 4.8 3.0 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spaeri down, Gagra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,065 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spaeri at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gagra away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Spaeri, 1.25 for Gagra. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 14:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GAG 1–1 SPA · SPA 3–0 GAG · GAG 0–3 SPA · SPA 1–1 GAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 5 Sept

SPAERI

DDLLDL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 1–3

GAGRA

LDLDLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
2	Rustavi	29	+12	52
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	+11	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	+16	51
5	Dila	29	+4	40
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37
8	Gagra	29	−17	29
9	Spaeri	29	−11	26
10	Meshakhte	29	−27	17