Samgurali v Spaeri prediction · Erovnuli Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SamguraliDrawSpaeri

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Samgurali 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Samgurali are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Samgurali 49%, draw 23%, Spaeri 28%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Samgurali v SpaeriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Samgurali win49%

Draw23%

Spaeri win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 31

Venue26 May Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Samgurali

Spaeri

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 23 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Samgurali	30	−12	38
9	Spaeri	30	−11	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · samgurali winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Samgurali a 49% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Samgurali v Spaeri~~1.97 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 38 v 27~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samgurali win	49%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Spaeri win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Samgurali or draw	72%	–	–
Samgurali clean sheet	24%	–	–
Spaeri clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.3 4.2 3.6 1 5.8 10.0 6.6 3.3 2 6.3 8.8 6.4 3.1 3 4.1 5.8 4.2 2.0 4 2.1 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samgurali down, Spaeri across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,069 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Samgurali at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spaeri away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Samgurali, 1.46 for Spaeri. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–4 SAM · SAM 0–0 SPA · SPA 4–1 SAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 9 Sept

SAMGURALI

LLLWWL1–3 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–3

SPAERI

DLLDLD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Batumi	30	+16	56
2	Dinamo Tbilisi	30	+18	54
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	+11	52
4	Rustavi	30	+10	52
5	Dila	30	+3	40
6	Samgurali	30	−12	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37
8	Gagra	30	−17	30
9	Spaeri	30	−11	27
10	Meshakhte	30	−26	20