Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Erovnuli Liga › Samgurali v Meshakhte

Back
Georgia flag

Samgurali v Meshakhte

Samgurali
2–0Full time
Meshakhte

Erovnuli Liga · SAT 17 OCT · Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Samgurali 2–0 Meshakhte SAMGURALI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Samgurali win54%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.311
The market’s Brier score0.255

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Samgurali win at 54%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Samgurali 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Samgurali v Meshakhte
  4. 5′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–13–9
  5. 5′Samgurali score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–13–9
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Samgurali 1–0 Meshakhte
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Samgurali win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  9. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Meshakhte
  10. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Samgurali
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Samgurali 1–0 Meshakhte
  12. 46′Meshakhte have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  13. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Samgurali
  14. 47′HALF-TIME Samgurali 1–0 Meshakhte
  15. 49′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  16. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meshakhte · On: Tsotne·Patsatsia · Off: maksym pyrohov
  17. 58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Meshakhte
  18. 62′Meshakhte are down to ten from 59′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  19. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Lasha Ugrekhelidze · Meshakhte
  20. 65′8 shots for Meshakhte, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–3
  21. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Samgurali win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
  22. 70′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  23. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 67' rodrigues gean · Samgurali
  24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Samgurali · On: niko tsetskhladze · Off: Irakli Siradze
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Samgurali · On: Cebolinha claudio · Off: Irakli Bidzinashvili
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Meshakhte · On: saba chkhetiani · Off: Giorgi Gogolashvili
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Meshakhte · On: Ilia Dgebuadze · Off: Beka Shubitidze
  28. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Meshakhte · On: Giorgi Gegia · Off: Mate Kvirkvia
  29. 77′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  30. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Samgurali 2–0 Meshakhte
  31. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Samgurali win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
  32. 82′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  33. 82′Samgurali ahead on 77′ through Cebolinha claudio. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Meshakhte · On: tarik sikalo · Off: Erekle jijavadze
  35. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Samgurali · On: David krasovsky · Off: Tornike·Gaprindashvili
  36. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Samgurali · On: gigi gogia · Off: Levan Gegetchkori
  37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Samgurali · On: ryan · Off: Luqman Gilmore
  38. FTFULL TIME Samgurali 2–0 Meshakhte
  39. FTSamgurali 2–0 Meshakhte · Samgurali win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Samgurali are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Samgurali 54%, draw 24%, Meshakhte 22%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Samgurali v MeshakhteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Samgurali win54%
Draw24%
Meshakhte win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueStadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Line-ups

Samgurali

4-1-4-1

Meshakhte

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Samgurali

Meshakhte

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Samgurali28−1135
10Meshakhte28−2517

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Samgurali

4-1-4-1

21 A. Siukaev

13 L. Gegetchkori

25 M. Shatirishvili

4 O. Patarkatsishvili

27 L. Shergelashvili

10 L. Gilmore

9 T. Gaprindashvili

20 Vinicius Vianna

8 I. Bidzinashvili

15 Gean Carlos

19 I. Siradze

Coach · G. Oniani

Substitutes

26 · Z. Iashvili

33 · Isac Martins

12 · A. Kasradze

11 · D. Krasovski

39 · Ryan

17 · N. Tsetskhladze

22 · G. Gogia

28 · Cláudio Cebolinha

Meshakhte

4-2-3-1

29 L. Shovnadze

23 B. Shubitidze

31 Eric Pimentel

38 I. Zotko

40 L. Ugrekhelidze

27 G. Kantaria

7 E. Jijavadze

26 B. Gabiskiria

30 M. Pyrogov

11 M. Kvirkvia

10 G. Gogolashvili

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · I. Dgebuadze

16 · G. Gegia

20 · L. Kurdadze

25 · R. Novruzov

6 · G. Papuashvili

18 · T. Patsatsia

22 · T. Šikalo

1 · L. Tkeshelashvili

24 · S. Chkhetiani

Our number · samgurali winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off
54% The market59%
Us54%
Market59%

We make Samgurali a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Samgurali v Meshakhte1.92 – 1.13
Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 35 v 177 v 10
The market · Samgurali win59% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 11:41
Our probability · Samgurali win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Samgurali win54%59%−5
Draw24%23%+1
Meshakhte win22%18%+4
Over 2.5 goals58%54%+4
Both teams to score58%52%+6
Over 1.5 goals81%76%+5
Over 3.5 goals36%33%+3
Samgurali or draw78%82%−4
Samgurali clean sheet33%––
Meshakhte clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.9 4.7 3.1 1 8.4 11.0 5.7 2.2 2 8.6 9.5 5.3 2.1 3 5.5 6.0 3.4 4 2.7 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Samgurali down, Meshakhte across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsMES 1–2 SAM · SAM 0–0 MES · SAM 3–1 MES · MES 0–0 SAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug

SAMGURALI

DLLLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–0

MESHAKHTE

WDDLDL2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dinamo Batumi28+1150
2Rustavi28+1149
3FC Iberia 199928+949
4Dinamo Tbilisi28+1448
5Dila28+640
6Torpedo Kutaisi28+937
7Samgurali28−1135
8Gagra28−1529
9Spaeri28−926
10Meshakhte28−2517

The competition's standings before kick-off.