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Samgurali v Meshakhte
Samgurali
MeshakhteErovnuli Liga · SAT 17 OCT · Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Samgurali win at 54%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Samgurali 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Samgurali v Meshakhte
- 5′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–13–9
- 5′Samgurali score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–13–9
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Samgurali 1–0 Meshakhte
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Samgurali win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Meshakhte
- 37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Samgurali
- 45′SECOND HALF Samgurali 1–0 Meshakhte
- 46′Meshakhte have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 79–16–5
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Samgurali
- 47′HALF-TIME Samgurali 1–0 Meshakhte
- 49′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
- 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meshakhte · On: Tsotne·Patsatsia · Off: maksym pyrohov
- 58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Meshakhte
- 62′Meshakhte are down to ten from 59′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 82–15–3
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Lasha Ugrekhelidze · Meshakhte
- 65′8 shots for Meshakhte, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–3
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Samgurali win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
- 70′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 67' rodrigues gean · Samgurali
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Samgurali · On: niko tsetskhladze · Off: Irakli Siradze
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Samgurali · On: Cebolinha claudio · Off: Irakli Bidzinashvili
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Meshakhte · On: saba chkhetiani · Off: Giorgi Gogolashvili
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Meshakhte · On: Ilia Dgebuadze · Off: Beka Shubitidze
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Meshakhte · On: Giorgi Gegia · Off: Mate Kvirkvia
- 77′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Samgurali 2–0 Meshakhte
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Samgurali win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
- 82′We said Samgurali at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 82′Samgurali ahead on 77′ through Cebolinha claudio. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Meshakhte · On: tarik sikalo · Off: Erekle jijavadze
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Samgurali · On: David krasovsky · Off: Tornike·Gaprindashvili
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Samgurali · On: gigi gogia · Off: Levan Gegetchkori
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Samgurali · On: ryan · Off: Luqman Gilmore
- FTFULL TIME Samgurali 2–0 Meshakhte
- FTSamgurali 2–0 Meshakhte · Samgurali win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSamgurali are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Samgurali 54%, draw 24%, Meshakhte 22%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Samgurali win54%
Meshakhte win22%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30
RoundMatchday 29
VenueStadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava
Match timeline
All events
SamguraliMIN
MeshakhteEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Samgurali
4-1-4-1
Meshakhte
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Samgurali
Meshakhte
Last match: 11 Oct · Erovnuli Liga
Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Samgurali
4-1-4-1
21 A. Siukaev
13 L. Gegetchkori
25 M. Shatirishvili
4 O. Patarkatsishvili
27 L. Shergelashvili
10 L. Gilmore
9 T. Gaprindashvili
20 Vinicius Vianna
8 I. Bidzinashvili
15 Gean Carlos
19 I. Siradze
Coach · G. Oniani
Substitutes
26 · Z. Iashvili
33 · Isac Martins
12 · A. Kasradze
11 · D. Krasovski
39 · Ryan
17 · N. Tsetskhladze
22 · G. Gogia
28 · Cláudio Cebolinha
Meshakhte
4-2-3-1
29 L. Shovnadze
23 B. Shubitidze
31 Eric Pimentel
38 I. Zotko
40 L. Ugrekhelidze
27 G. Kantaria
7 E. Jijavadze
26 B. Gabiskiria
30 M. Pyrogov
11 M. Kvirkvia
10 G. Gogolashvili
Coach · –
Substitutes
19 · I. Dgebuadze
16 · G. Gegia
20 · L. Kurdadze
25 · R. Novruzov
6 · G. Papuashvili
18 · T. Patsatsia
22 · T. Šikalo
1 · L. Tkeshelashvili
24 · S. Chkhetiani
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Samgurali
4-1-4-1
21 A. Siukaev
13 L. Gegetchkori
25 M. Shatirishvili
4 O. Patarkatsishvili
27 L. Shergelashvili
10 L. Gilmore
9 T. Gaprindashvili
20 Vinicius Vianna
8 I. Bidzinashvili
15 Gean Carlos
19 I. Siradze
Coach · G. Oniani
Substitutes
26 · Z. Iashvili
33 · Isac Martins
12 · A. Kasradze
11 · D. Krasovski
39 · Ryan
17 · N. Tsetskhladze
22 · G. Gogia
28 · Cláudio Cebolinha
Meshakhte
4-2-3-1
29 L. Shovnadze
23 B. Shubitidze
31 Eric Pimentel
38 I. Zotko
40 L. Ugrekhelidze
27 G. Kantaria
7 E. Jijavadze
26 B. Gabiskiria
30 M. Pyrogov
11 M. Kvirkvia
10 G. Gogolashvili
Coach · –
Substitutes
19 · I. Dgebuadze
16 · G. Gegia
20 · L. Kurdadze
25 · R. Novruzov
6 · G. Papuashvili
18 · T. Patsatsia
22 · T. Šikalo
1 · L. Tkeshelashvili
24 · S. Chkhetiani
We make Samgurali a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samgurali win | 54% | 59% | −5 |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | +1 |
| Meshakhte win | 22% | 18% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 76% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 33% | +3 |
| Samgurali or draw | 78% | 82% | −4 |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
| Meshakhte clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug
SAMGURALI
MESHAKHTE
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 28 | +11 | 50 |
| 2 | Rustavi | 28 | +11 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 | 28 | +9 | 49 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 28 | +14 | 48 |
| 5 | Dila | 28 | +6 | 40 |
| 6 | Torpedo Kutaisi | 28 | +9 | 37 |
| 7 | Samgurali | 28 | −11 | 35 |
| 8 | Gagra | 28 | −15 | 29 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 28 | −9 | 26 |
| 10 | Meshakhte | 28 | −25 | 17 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Dinamo Batumi
Rustavi
FC Iberia 1999
Dinamo Tbilisi
Dila
Torpedo Kutaisi
Gagra
Spaeri