Samgurali v Gagra prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Samgurali 3–0 Gagra SAMGURALI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Samgurali win~~47%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Samgurali win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Samgurali was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
21′Samgurali ahead on 7′ through Irakli Bidzinashvili. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
23′Samgurali ahead on 7′ through Irakli Bidzinashvili. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
44′We published Samgurali at 47%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′We published Samgurali at 47%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
45′SECOND HALF Samgurali 1–0 Gagra
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Samgurali 2–0 Gagra · Irakli Bidzinashvili
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Samgurali 2–0 Gagra
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gagra · On: Andrey andreychuk · Off: davit mujiri Corrected
49′⚽ GOAL · 46' Samgurali 2–0 Gagra · Tornike·Gaprindashvili (assist Irakli Bidzinashvili)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Samgurali win: 47% at kick-off, 93% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Samgurali 3–0 Gagra · Tornike·Gaprindashvili
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gagra · On: Richmond Adeyeye · Off: pedro borges Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Gagra · On: Givi khachidze · Off: Luka Gurchiani Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Samgurali · On: niko tsetskhladze · Off: Tornike·Gaprindashvili Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Samgurali · On: David krasovsky · Off: Irakli Bidzinashvili Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Samgurali · On: Cebolinha claudio · Off: Irakli Siradze Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Samgurali · On: zaza iashvili · Off: Luqman Gilmore Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Gagra
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Gagra · On: Cesar Vinicius · Off: alexander feikrishvili Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Samgurali 3–0 Gagra · Tornike·Gaprindashvili
FTFULL TIME Samgurali 3–0 Gagra
FTSamgurali 3–0 Gagra · Samgurali win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Samgurali win47%

Draw25%

Gagra win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueStadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Line-ups

Samgurali

4-1-4-1

Gagra

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Samgurali

Gagra

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Samgurali	27	−14	32
8	Gagra	27	−12	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Samgurali

4-1-4-1

21 A. Siukaev

13 L. Gegetchkori

25 M. Shatirishvili

4 O. Patarkatsishvili

27 L. Shergelashvili

10 L. Gilmore

9 T. Gaprindashvili

20 Vinicius Vianna

8 I. Bidzinashvili

15 Gean Rodrigues

19 I. Siradze

Coach · Giorgi Oniani

Substitutes

11 · D. Krasovski

12 · A. Kasradze

14 · T. Goletiani

17 · N. Tsetskhladze

22 · G. Gogia

26 · Z. Iashvili

28 · Claudio Cebolinha

33 · Isac Martins

39 · Ryan

Gagra

4-4-2

1 O. Vorobey

40 Claudinei

14 Z. Tchavtchanidze

2 Augusto

11 S. Zoidze

33 L. Gurchiani

21 A. Peikrishvili

25 Wanderson

7 P. Borges

30 G. Goshteliani

9 D. Mujiri

Coach · Zeljko Ljubenovic

Substitutes

4 · V. Arsic

5 · Y. Nazarov

8 · I. Skrypnyk

17 · Vinicius Cesar

19 · G. Khachidze

22 · G. Sadghobelashvili

23 · A. Andreychuk

29 · R. Adeyeye

35 · A. Dmitrievich

Our number · samgurali winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

47% The market46%

Us47%

~~Market~~46%

We make Samgurali a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · samgurali win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samgurali win	47%	46%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Gagra win	28%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	51%	+8
Both teams to score	61%	54%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	81%	73%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	37%	30%	+7
Samgurali or draw	72%	73%	−2
Samgurali clean sheet	27%	–	–
Gagra clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.9 5.3 4.1 1 7.3 11.4 6.9 3.1 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.7 3 4.1 5.3 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samgurali down, Gagra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 2.37 goals a meeting; 5 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Samgurali at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gagra away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Samgurali, 1.33 for Gagra. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.37

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 19

~~Both scored~~8 of 19

~~Last meetings~~GAG 0–0 SAM · SAM 2–0 GAG · GAG 0–1 SAM · SAM 1–1 GAG

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga

SAMGURALI

WDLLLL4–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–3

GAGRA

LWLDLD0–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rustavi	28	+11	49
2	FC Iberia 1999	28	+9	49
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	+15	48
4	Dinamo Batumi	27	+10	47
5	Dila	28	+6	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	28	+9	37
7	Samgurali	27	−14	32
8	Gagra	27	−12	29
9	Spaeri	28	−9	26
10	Meshakhte	28	−25	17