Rustavi v Dinamo Tbilisi prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi RUSTAVI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rustavi win~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.674

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.573

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rustavi win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rustavi was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
1′KICK-OFF Rustavi v Dinamo Tbilisi
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Rustavi
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Rustavi win 34%)
36′We said Rustavi at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rustavi 0–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Rustavi win: 36% at kick-off, 9% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Dinamo Tbilisi win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 40%)
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 9–22–69
39′A goal for Dinamo Tbilisi on 37′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–70
45′SECOND HALF Rustavi 0–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
46′HALF-TIME Rustavi 0–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Rustavi win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Lyes Houri · Off: Giorgi Kharaishvili
57′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Algassime Bah · Off: Mate Vatsadze
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Dinamo Tbilisi
59′We said Rustavi at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi
63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Dinamo Tbilisi
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Rustavi
65′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
65′A goal for Dinamo Tbilisi on 63′. 0–3 · 0–0–100
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Rustavi 0–3 Dinamo Tbilisi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rustavi · On: solomon kessi · Off: kenio jackson
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Dinamo Tbilisi
70′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: tornike kvaratskhelia · Off: Maxime teixeira
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: santos leo · Off: Barnes Osei
87′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rustavi · On: kevin ceijas · Off: David Oliveira da Silva
87′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rustavi · On: Irakli iakobidze · Off: Avtandil gujabidze
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rustavi · On: Luka·Parkadze · Off: jean
87′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Rustavi · On: Kakhaber Kakashvili · Off: Yuta nakano
FTFULL TIME Rustavi 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi
FTRustavi 0–2 Dinamo Tbilisi · Rustavi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rustavi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rustavi 36%, draw 31%, Dinamo Tbilisi 33%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Rustavi v Dinamo TbilisiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Rustavi win36%

Draw31%

Dinamo Tbilisi win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenuePoladi Stadium

Line-ups

Rustavi

4-3-3

Dinamo Tbilisi

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rustavi

Dinamo Tbilisi

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Rustavi	29	+12	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	+16	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rustavi

4-3-3

21 P. Beruashvili

2 S. Andghuladze

4 David

3 V. Patsatsia

19 N. Chikovani

22 Y. Nakano

13 A. Gujabidze

40 D. Ubilava

9 Jean

7 K. S. Abdul

10 P. Osei

Coach · G. Tsetsadze

Substitutes

12 · T. Tarkashvili

5 · Kevin William Ceijas

23 · M. Gamboš

24 · I. Iakobidze

8 · K. Kakashvili

27 · M. Kapanadze

11 · S. Kessi

20 · L. Parkadze

35 · J. Roland

Dinamo Tbilisi

4-3-3

20 Lucas Flores

17 P. Psaltis

27 N. Kurdić

4 N. Ugrekhelidze

13 M. Pourzitídis

22 N. Ninua

24 B. Osei

8 K. Kakashvili

10 G. Kharaishvili

11 M. Vatsadze

14 M. Do Couto

Coach · T. Ketsbaia

Substitutes

42 · Saba Tartarashvili

6 · Leonardo Santos

18 · T. Kvaratskhelia

3 · A. Kalandadze

33 · L. Houri

34 · M. Gbomadu

7 · K. Doltmurziev

12 · A. Bah

Our number · rustavi winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make Rustavi a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rustavi v Dinamo Tbilisi~~1.15 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 52 v 51~~2 v 4

~~The market · Rustavi win~~33% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rustavi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rustavi win	36%	33%	+3
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Dinamo Tbilisi win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Rustavi or draw	67%	62%	+5
Rustavi clean sheet	34%	–	–
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.1 10.7 6.3 2.3 1 11.3 14.0 7.0 2.6 2 7.1 7.5 4.0 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rustavi down, Dinamo Tbilisi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,065 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rustavi at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Tbilisi away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Rustavi, 1.09 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DIN 0–3 RUS · RUS 2–3 DIN · DIN 0–0 RUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 4 Sept

RUSTAVI

LDWLWW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

DINAMO TBILISI

DWWWLW0–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
2	Rustavi	29	+12	52
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	+11	52
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	+16	51
5	Dila	29	+4	40
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37
8	Gagra	29	−17	29
9	Spaeri	29	−11	26
10	Meshakhte	29	−27	17