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Rustavi v Dila

Rustavi

3–1Full time

Dila

Erovnuli Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Poladi Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Rustavi 3–1 Dila DILA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dila win~~36%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.676

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.586

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dila win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dila 36% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
1′KICK-OFF Rustavi v Dila
23′21′ and it is 1–0: Rustavi have scored. 1–0 · 66–22–11
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Rustavi 1–0 Dila
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Dila win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Rustavi win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Dila win 11%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 34' tedo kikabidze · Dila
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Rustavi 2–0 Dila · kenio jackson
45′We said Dila at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Dila win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
45′HALF-TIME Rustavi 2–0 Dila
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rustavi 2–0 Dila · jean (assist prince osei)
46′SECOND HALF Rustavi 2–0 Dila
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dila · On: badri gogoberishvili · Off: Lamar Yarbrough Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 51' kenio jackson · Rustavi
57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Rustavi · On: Luka·Parkadze · Off: jean Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Dila
59′⚽ GOAL · 21' Rustavi 2–0 Dila · kenio jackson (assist prince osei)
59′🟨 YELLOW · 34' tedo kikabidze · Dila
59′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rustavi 2–0 Dila · jean (assist prince osei)
59′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dila · On: badri gogoberishvili · Off: Lamar Yarbrough Corrected
59′🟨 YELLOW · 51' kenio jackson · Rustavi
59′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Rustavi · On: Luka·Parkadze · Off: jean Corrected
59′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Dila
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Rustavi 2–1 Dila · jean
66′⚽ GOAL · 60' Rustavi 2–1 Dila · Otar Parulava
66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' araujo joao · Dila
70′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Blankson Anoff · Dila
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dila · On: Aviel Zargari · Off: lasha menteshashvili Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Rustavi 3–1 Dila · Otar Parulava
76′⚽ GOAL · 71' Rustavi 3–1 Dila
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dila · On: Zurab Museliani · Off: Mohamed Kanté Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rustavi · On: kevin ceijas · Off: Avtandil gujabidze Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rustavi · On: Kakhaber Kakashvili · Off: Yuta nakano Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rustavi · On: mamuka kapanadze · Off: kenio jackson Corrected
FTFULL TIME Rustavi 3–1 Dila
FTRustavi 3–1 Dila · Dila win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rustavi win33%

Draw31%

Dila win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Poladi Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rustavi

4-3-3

21 P. Beruashvili

2 S. Andghuladze

4 David Oliveira

3 V. Patsatsia

19 N. Chikovani

22 Y. Nakano

13 A. Gujabidze

40 D. Ubilava

9 Jean

7 Jackson Kenio

10 P. Osei

Coach · Giorgi Tsetsadze

Substitutes

35 · J. Roland

5 · K. Ceijas

8 · K. Kakashvili

11 · S. Kessi

12 · T. Tarkashvili

18 · N. Japaridze

20 · L. Parkadze

23 · M. Gambos

27 · M. Kapanadze

Dila

3-4-1-2

12 L. Sanikidze

2 T. Kikabidze

13 Joao Araujo

25 L. Yarbrough

16 M. Sanyang

17 B. Anoff

8 L. Menteshashvili

14 G. Jalaghonia

10 O. Parulava

22 S. Shekiladze

9 M. Kante

Coach · Levan Korghalidze

Substitutes

1 · D. Kereselidze

5 · M. N. Puketi

7 · A. Zargari

15 · G. Kobakhidze

19 · B. Gogoberishvili

21 · Z. Museliani

33 · R. Etou

37 · L. Edhart

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rustavi

4-3-3

21 P. Beruashvili

2 S. Andghuladze

4 David Oliveira

3 V. Patsatsia

19 N. Chikovani

22 Y. Nakano

13 A. Gujabidze

40 D. Ubilava

9 Jean

7 Jackson Kenio

10 P. Osei

Coach · Giorgi Tsetsadze

Substitutes

35 · J. Roland

5 · K. Ceijas

8 · K. Kakashvili

11 · S. Kessi

12 · T. Tarkashvili

18 · N. Japaridze

20 · L. Parkadze

23 · M. Gambos

27 · M. Kapanadze

Dila

3-4-1-2

12 L. Sanikidze

2 T. Kikabidze

13 Joao Araujo

25 L. Yarbrough

16 M. Sanyang

17 B. Anoff

8 L. Menteshashvili

14 G. Jalaghonia

10 O. Parulava

22 S. Shekiladze

9 M. Kante

Coach · Levan Korghalidze

Substitutes

1 · D. Kereselidze

5 · M. N. Puketi

7 · A. Zargari

15 · G. Kobakhidze

19 · B. Gogoberishvili

21 · Z. Museliani

33 · R. Etou

37 · L. Edhart

Our number · dila winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

36% The market33%

Us36%

~~Market~~33%

We make Dila a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dila win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rustavi win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	31%	30%	+2
Dila win	36%	33%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	69%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	24%	−5
Rustavi or draw	64%	67%	−3
Rustavi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Dila clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.7 11.4 7.0 2.7 1 10.7 14.2 7.3 2.8 2 6.4 7.0 3.9 3 2.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rustavi down, Dila across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,055 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rustavi at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dila away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Rustavi, 1.13 for Dila. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DIL 3–0 RUS · RUS 1–0 DIL · DIL 1–2 RUS

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga

RUSTAVI

WDLDWL3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

DILA

LWWDLW1–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	+15	48
2	Dinamo Batumi	27	+10	47
3	Rustavi	27	+9	46
4	FC Iberia 1999	27	+8	46
5	Dila	27	+8	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	27	+9	36
7	Samgurali	27	−14	32
8	Gagra	27	−12	29
9	Spaeri	27	−9	25
10	Meshakhte	27	−24	17