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Meshakhte v Dila

Meshakhte
2–1Full time
Dila

Erovnuli Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Meshakhte 2–1 Dila DILA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dila win53%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.985
The market’s Brier score0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dila win at 53%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Dila 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 20–27–53
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Meshakhte v Dila
  4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Meshakhte
  5. 28′A goal for Dila on 26′. 0–0 · 20–33–47
  6. 31′Dila ahead on 27′ through Mohamed Kanté. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–15–80
  7. 31′We said Dila at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 5–15–80
  8. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 5–15–80
  9. 31′⚽ GOAL · 27' Meshakhte 0–1 Dila · Mohamed Kanté (assist Shota Shekiladze)
  10. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Dila win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Meshakhte 0–1 Dila
  12. 47′SECOND HALF Meshakhte 0–1 Dila
  13. 53′Meshakhte have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–15–82
  14. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meshakhte · On: reis rafael · Off: Giorgi Gegia
  15. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Meshakhte · On: giorgi papuashvili · Off: pimentel eric
  16. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Dila win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
  17. 57′Meshakhte have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
  18. 63′We said Dila at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Dila · On: Giorgi Jalaghonia · Off: Mouhamed Diouf
  20. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Dila · On: Aviel Zargari · Off: Georgiy Kobakhidze
  21. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Dila
  22. 67′We said Dila at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 14–58–28
  23. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Meshakhte 1–1 Dila
  24. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dila win: 53% at kick-off, 28% now
  25. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dila win 85%)
  26. 70′12 shots for Meshakhte, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 13–62–25
  27. 71′We said Dila at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 13–63–24
  28. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Dila win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  29. 76′We said Dila at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 80–17–2
  30. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Meshakhte 2–1 Dila
  31. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dila win: 53% at kick-off, 2% now
  32. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Meshakhte win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 70%)
  33. 77′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–2
  34. 80′Meshakhte score on 75′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  35. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Dila
  36. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Dila
  37. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Meshakhte
  38. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dila · On: Kristaps Grabovskis · Off: lasha menteshashvili
  39. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Dila · On: Zurab Museliani · Off: Nelson Mike Puketi
  40. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Dila · On: Otar Parulava · Off: Blankson Anoff
  41. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Meshakhte
  42. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Meshakhte · On: maksym pyrohov · Off: beka gabiskiria
  43. 96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Meshakhte
  44. FTFULL TIME Meshakhte 2–1 Dila
  45. FTMeshakhte 2–1 Dila · Dila win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dila are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Meshakhte 20%, draw 27%, Dila 53%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Meshakhte v DilaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Meshakhte win20%
Draw27%
Dila win53%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueStadioni Vladimer Bochorishvili

Line-ups

Meshakhte

5-4-1

Dila

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Meshakhte

Dila

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 19 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Dila29+440
10Meshakhte29−2717

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Meshakhte

5-4-1

1 L. Tkeshelashvili

23 B. Shubitidze

20 L. Kurdadze

31 Eric Pimentel

38 I. Zotko

16 G. Gegia

26 B. Gabiskiria

27 G. Kantaria

7 E. Jijavadze

11 M. Kvirkvia

18 T. Patsatsia

Coach · –

Dila

3-4-1-2

1 D. Kereselidze

2 T. Kikabidze

13 João Araújo

5 Nelson Mike Puketi

16 M. Sanyang

17 B. Anoff

15 G. Kobakhidze

24 Mouhamed Diouf

8 L. Menteshashvili

9 K. Kefing

22 Shota Shekiladze

Coach · A. Vavalis

Our number · dila winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
53% The market50%
Us53%
Market50%

We make Dila a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Meshakhte v Dila0.90 – 1.61
Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 5 SeptW0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 17 v 4010 v 5
The market · Dila win50% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:48
Our probability · Dila win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Meshakhte win20%23%−3
Draw27%27%0
Dila win53%50%+3
Over 2.5 goals46%46%0
Both teams to score48%49%−1
Over 1.5 goals72%70%+2
Over 3.5 goals25%26%−1
Meshakhte or draw47%50%−3
Meshakhte clean sheet21%––
Dila clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 9.4 12.1 10.4 5.6 2.3 1 6.5 12.5 9.2 4.9 2.1 2 3.4 5.2 4.1 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Meshakhte down, Dila across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsDIL 3–1 MES · MES 0–2 DIL · DIL 0–1 MES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 5 Sept

MESHAKHTE

DDLDLL2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

DILA

WDLWLL3–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dinamo Tbilisi30+1854
2Dinamo Batumi29+1353
3FC Iberia 199929+1152
4Rustavi30+1052
5Dila29+440
6Samgurali29−938
7Torpedo Kutaisi29+837
8Gagra30−1730
9Spaeri30−1127
10Meshakhte29−2717

The competition's standings before kick-off.