Gagra v Dinamo Batumi prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Gagra 1–3 Dinamo Batumi DINAMO BATUMI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Batumi win~~44%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.231

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Batumi win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Batumi was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 29–27–44
1′KICK-OFF Gagra v Dinamo Batumi
6′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 12–17–71
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Gagra 0–1 Dinamo Batumi
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Dinamo Batumi win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
7′A goal for Dinamo Batumi on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–17–71
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–73
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Dinamo Batumi win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
45′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
45′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–5–93
45′44′: Maurides Roque Junior on the scoresheet for Dinamo Batumi, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–93
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Gagra 0–2 Dinamo Batumi
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Dinamo Batumi win: 44% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Gagra 0–2 Dinamo Batumi
46′SECOND HALF Gagra 0–2 Dinamo Batumi
47′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Gagra
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Dinamo Batumi win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
49′45′: Maurides Roque Junior on the scoresheet for Dinamo Batumi, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gagra · On: davit mujiri · Off: Andrey andreychuk
53′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
56′🟨 YELLOW · 53' pedro borges · Gagra
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Gagra · On: Luka Gurchiani · Off: pedro borges
63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Gagra
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dinamo Batumi · On: A. Eshetiye · Off: Levan Shengelia
67′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–2 · 3–16–81
67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–16–81
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Gagra 1–2 Dinamo Batumi
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dinamo Batumi win: 44% at kick-off, 81% now
69′Gagra find the net on 67′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–16–82
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gagra · On: alexander feikrishvili · Off: Guram Goshteliani
74′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Batumi · On: Dmitri Mandricenco · Off: Maurides Roque Junior
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Gagra
82′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Batumi · On: Nika Kalandarishvili · Off: Imran Omar Oulad
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gagra · On: Illia skrypnyk · Off: Vladimir·Arsic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gagra · On: Givi khachidze · Off: Viktor Bliznichenko
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Dinamo Batumi · On: Artem Milchenko · Off: Luka Lakvekheliani
83′We published Dinamo Batumi at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Gagra 1–3 Dinamo Batumi
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Dinamo Batumi win: 44% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′A goal for Dinamo Batumi on 83′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Gagra
86′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Dinamo Batumi
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gagra 1–3 Dinamo Batumi · davit mujiri (penalty)
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Gagra 1–3 Dinamo Batumi · Nika Kalandarishvili
FTFULL TIME Gagra 1–3 Dinamo Batumi
FTGagra 1–3 Dinamo Batumi · Dinamo Batumi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Batumi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gagra 29%, draw 27%, Dinamo Batumi 44%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Gagra v Dinamo BatumiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gagra win29%

Draw27%

Dinamo Batumi win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueMtskheta Park

Line-ups

Gagra

4-1-4-1

Dinamo Batumi

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gagra

Dinamo Batumi

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gagra

4-1-4-1

1 O. Vorobey

40 Claudinei

14 Z. Tchavtchanidze

2 Augusto

4 V. Arsić

6 M. Tsintsadze

7 P. Borges

30 G. Goshteliani

25 Wanderson

18 V. Bliznichenko

23 A. Andreychuk

Coach · Ž. Ljubenović

Substitutes

22 · G. Sadghobelashvili

8 · I. Skrypnyk

17 · Vinicius Cesar

35 · Alexander Timchenko

33 · L. Gurchiani

19 · G. Khachidze

9 · D. Mujiri

5 · Y. Nazarov

21 · alexander feikrishvili

Dinamo Batumi

4-2-3-1

13 N. Kalichava

29 I. Turitsov

23 M. Kobakhidze

24 D. Carlson

12 L. Lakvekheliani

10 U. Mara

8 S. Altunashvili

27 L. Shengelia

18 I. Oulad Omar

11 Paulo Vitor

9 Maurides

Coach · Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Substitutes

7 · D. Mandrîcenco

15 · E. Mahmutović

1 · L. Kupatadze

19 · N. Kalandarishvili

16 · A. Eshetiye

35 · R. Chiteishvili

37 · Giorgi putkaradze

6 · A. Mylchenko

Our number · dinamo batumi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

44% The market61%

Us44%

~~Market~~61%

We make Dinamo Batumi a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gagra v Dinamo Batumi~~1.22 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 29 v 50~~8 v 1

~~The market · Dinamo Batumi win~~61% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Batumi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gagra win	29%	16%	+13
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Dinamo Batumi win	44%	61%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	50%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Gagra or draw	56%	39%	+17
Gagra clean sheet	22%	–	–
Dinamo Batumi clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.5 8.8 7.5 4.0 1 6.7 12.5 8.9 4.7 2 4.7 7.0 5.4 2.8 3 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gagra down, Dinamo Batumi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,060 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gagra at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Batumi away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Gagra, 1.57 for Dinamo Batumi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–2 GAG · GAG 1–2 DIN · DIN 1–1 GAG · GAG 4–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug

GAGRA

WLDLDL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–3

DINAMO BATUMI

WWWDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Batumi	28	+11	50
2	Rustavi	28	+11	49
3	FC Iberia 1999	28	+9	49
4	Dinamo Tbilisi	28	+14	48
5	Dila	28	+6	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	28	+9	37
7	Samgurali	28	−11	35
8	Gagra	28	−15	29
9	Spaeri	28	−9	26
10	Meshakhte	28	−25	17