FC Iberia 1999 v Torpedo Kutaisi prediction · Erovnuli Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC Iberia 1999DrawTorpedo Kutaisi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Iberia 1999 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Iberia 1999 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Iberia 1999 46%, draw 26%, Torpedo Kutaisi 28%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on FC Iberia 1999 v Torpedo KutaisiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Iberia 1999 win46%

Draw26%

Torpedo Kutaisi win28%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueMikheil Meskhi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Iberia 1999

Torpedo Kutaisi

4Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 18 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	+11	52
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc iberia 1999 winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make FC Iberia 1999 a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Iberia 1999 v Torpedo Kutaisi~~1.64 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 52 v 37~~3 v 7

~~The market · FC Iberia 1999 win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Iberia 1999 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Iberia 1999 win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Torpedo Kutaisi win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
FC Iberia 1999 or draw	72%	74%	−2
FC Iberia 1999 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Torpedo Kutaisi clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 6.2 4.3 1 8.7 12.2 6.8 2.8 2 7.7 9.1 5.4 2.2 3 4.3 5.0 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Iberia 1999 down, Torpedo Kutaisi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,067 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Iberia 1999 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Kutaisi away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for FC Iberia 1999, 1.21 for Torpedo Kutaisi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOR 4–3 FCI · FCI 2–2 TOR · FCI 1–1 TOR · TOR 1–0 FCI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 6 Sept

FC IBERIA 1999

WWWLWW1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

TORPEDO KUTAISI

DDWLDL1–1 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 3–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Tbilisi	30	+18	54
2	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	+11	52
4	Rustavi	30	+10	52
5	Dila	30	+3	40
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37
8	Gagra	30	−17	30
9	Spaeri	30	−11	27
10	Meshakhte	30	−26	20