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Dinamo Tbilisi v Spaeri

Dinamo Tbilisi
3–1Full time
Spaeri

Erovnuli Liga · SUN 18 OCT · Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43
Dinamo Tbilisi 3–1 Spaeri DINAMO TBILISI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dinamo Tbilisi win59%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.254
The market’s Brier score0.269

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Tbilisi win at 59%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Tbilisi 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Tbilisi v Spaeri
  4. 20′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Dinamo Tbilisi 1–0 Spaeri
  6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
  7. 21′Dinamo Tbilisi find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  8. 23′Dinamo Tbilisi find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–13–6
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 81–14–5
  10. 43′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–34–19
  11. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 Spaeri
  12. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
  13. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 47% now
  14. 45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Spaeri
  15. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Dinamo Tbilisi 1–0 Spaeri
  17. 46′HALF-TIME Dinamo Tbilisi 1–0 Spaeri
  18. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spaeri · On: Zurab Golubiani · Off: Temuri tsalughelashvili
  19. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Mate Vatsadze · Off: Khalid doltmurziev
  20. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Lyes Houri · Off: Maxime teixeira
  21. 63′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–48–16
  22. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Dinamo Tbilisi 1–1 Spaeri
  23. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 36% now
  24. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Dinamo Tbilisi win 36%)
  25. 64′Dinamo Tbilisi have had 13 attempts to 6 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 35–49–16
  26. 65′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–15
  27. 67′A goal for Spaeri on 64′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–53–15
  28. 68′18 shots for Dinamo Tbilisi, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 32–54–14
  29. 69′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–1 · 86–12–2
  30. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Dinamo Tbilisi 2–1 Spaeri
  31. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 86% now
  32. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Dinamo Tbilisi win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
  33. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: tornike kvaratskhelia · Off: Giorgi Kharaishvili
  34. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Paris Psaltis · Off: santos leo
  35. 74′Dinamo Tbilisi score on 69′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  36. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
  37. 78′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  38. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Barnes Osei · Off: Jaba Kankava
  39. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spaeri · On: Nikoloz Chomakhidze · Off: bukhuti putkaradze
  40. 79′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  41. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Dinamo Tbilisi 3–1 Spaeri
  42. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Dinamo Tbilisi win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  43. 80′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–0–0
  44. 81′We said Dinamo Tbilisi at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  45. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spaeri · On: Billy Jibril · Off: Saba gegiadze
  46. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Spaeri · On: Sienda Matenjva · Off: nika chagunava
  47. 85′Dinamo Tbilisi ahead on 80′ through Mate Vatsadze. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  48. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spaeri · On: d giorgi tsetskhladze · Off: Lasha Kokhreidze
  49. 93′3–1 at the end. Our 59% on Dinamo Tbilisi comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  50. FTFULL TIME Dinamo Tbilisi 3–1 Spaeri
  51. FTDinamo Tbilisi 3–1 Spaeri · Dinamo Tbilisi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Tbilisi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Tbilisi 59%, draw 23%, Spaeri 18%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Tbilisi v SpaeriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Tbilisi win59%
Draw23%
Spaeri win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueBoris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Tbilisi

4-2-3-1

Spaeri

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Tbilisi

Spaeri

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Dinamo Tbilisi28+1448
9Spaeri28−926

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Tbilisi

4-2-3-1

20 Lucas Flores

6 Leonardo Santos

27 N. Kurdić

4 N. Ugrekhelidze

13 M. Pourzitídis

23 J. Kankava

8 Welton

10 G. Kharaishvili

22 N. Ninua

14 M. Do Couto

7 K. Doltmurziev

Coach · T. Ketsbaia

Substitutes

42 · Saba Tartarashvili

12 · A. Bah

34 · M. Gbomadu

33 · L. Houri

3 · A. Kalandadze

18 · T. Kvaratskhelia

11 · M. Vatsadze

24 · B. Osei

17 · P. Psaltis

Spaeri

4-2-3-1

1 B. Putkaradze

22 N. Chagunava

3 L. Kachibaia

2 giorgi pirtakhia

14 G. Samkharadze

5 T. Tsalughelashvili

6 T. Askurava

7 S. Gegiadze

10 Tamaz Tsetskhladze

19 G. Tsirdava

17 L. Kokhreidze

Coach · A. Kighuradze

Substitutes

26 · B. Jibril

20 · N. Kentchadze

8 · S. Maisuradze

13 · S. Mathenjwa

9 · G. Tsetskhladze

25 · R. Injgia

23 · N. Chomakhidze

30 · Z. Basilashvili

24 · Z. Golubiani

Our number · dinamo tbilisi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
59% The market58%
Us59%
Market58%

We make Dinamo Tbilisi a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Tbilisi v Spaeri2.02 – 1.03
Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 AugW3 D2 L1 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 48 v 264 v 9
The market · Dinamo Tbilisi win58% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0118 OCT 13:44
Our probability · Dinamo Tbilisi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Tbilisi win59%58%+1
Draw23%23%0
Spaeri win18%19%−1
Over 2.5 goals58%57%+1
Both teams to score55%56%−1
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+2
Over 3.5 goals36%37%−1
Dinamo Tbilisi or draw82%81%+1
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet36%––
Spaeri clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 5.9 4.3 2.6 1 8.9 10.5 5.0 2 9.5 9.5 4.9 3 6.4 6.4 3.3 4 3.3 3.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Tbilisi down, Spaeri across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.54 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsSPA 1–2 DIN · DIN 2–1 SPA · SPA 1–2 DIN · SPA 2–2 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 30 Aug

DINAMO TBILISI

DDWWWL1–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

SPAERI

LDDLLD0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 3–3

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Dinamo Batumi29+1353
2Rustavi28+1149
3FC Iberia 199928+949
4Dinamo Tbilisi28+1448
5Dila28+640
6Samgurali29−938
7Torpedo Kutaisi28+937
8Gagra29−1729
9Spaeri28−926
10Meshakhte29−2717

The competition's standings before kick-off.