Dinamo Batumi v Samgurali prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Dinamo Batumi 3–0 Samgurali DINAMO BATUMI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Batumi win~~52%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.347

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Batumi win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Batumi 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–22–26
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Batumi v Samgurali
24′A goal for Dinamo Batumi on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
24′We said Dinamo Batumi at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Samgurali
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Dinamo Batumi win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
28′A goal for Dinamo Batumi on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 74–16–9
33′We said Dinamo Batumi at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Samgurali
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Samgurali
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Samgurali · On: nika manjgaladze · Off: rodrigues gean
65′We said Dinamo Batumi at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
65′We said Dinamo Batumi at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Dinamo Batumi 2–0 Samgurali
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Dinamo Batumi win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Batumi · On: Imran Omar Oulad · Off: A. Eshetiye
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Batumi · On: Maurides Roque Junior · Off: Dmitri Mandricenco
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dinamo Batumi · On: Nika Kalandarishvili · Off: Luka Lakvekheliani
69′65′: Maurides Roque Junior on the scoresheet for Dinamo Batumi, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
74′We said Dinamo Batumi at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dinamo Batumi · On: guram japaridze · Off: Uerdi Mara
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Dinamo Batumi 3–0 Samgurali
75′Dinamo Batumi find the net on 73′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Samgurali · On: David krasovsky · Off: niko tsetskhladze
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Samgurali · On: Irakli Siradze · Off: Cebolinha claudio
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Samgurali · On: zaza iashvili · Off: Mate shatirishvili
78′Dinamo Batumi ahead on 74′ through Levan Shengelia. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Dinamo Batumi · On: Enes Mahmutovic · Off: Sandro Altunashvili
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Samgurali · On: Tamaz Goletiani · Off: Omar patarkatsishvili
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Batumi 3–0 Samgurali
FTDinamo Batumi 3–0 Samgurali · Dinamo Batumi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Batumi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Batumi 52%, draw 22%, Samgurali 26%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Batumi v SamguraliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Batumi win52%

Draw22%

Samgurali win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueBatumi Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Batumi

4-2-3-1

Samgurali

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Batumi

Samgurali

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Batumi

4-2-3-1

13 N. Kalichava

29 I. Turitsov

23 M. Kobakhidze

24 D. Carlson

12 L. Lakvekheliani

10 U. Mara

8 S. Altunashvili

11 Paulo Vitor

27 L. Shengelia

16 A. Eshetiye

7 D. Mandrîcenco

Coach · Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Substitutes

9 · Maurides

6 · A. Mylchenko

18 · I. Oulad Omar

35 · R. Chiteishvili

39 · G. Japaridze

19 · N. Kalandarishvili

22 · T. Kirkitadze

1 · L. Kupatadze

15 · E. Mahmutović

Samgurali

4-4-2

21 A. Siukaev

13 L. Gegetchkori

4 O. Patarkatsishvili

25 M. Shatirishvili

27 L. Shergelashvili

9 T. Gaprindashvili

39 Ryan

22 G. Gogia

17 N. Tsetskhladze

28 Cláudio Cebolinha

15 Gean Carlos

Coach · G. Oniani

Substitutes

11 · D. Krasovski

12 · A. Kasradze

26 · Z. Iashvili

14 · T. Goletiani

8 · I. Bidzinashvili

29 · nika manjgaladze

19 · I. Siradze

Our number · dinamo batumi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market60%

Us52%

~~Market~~60%

We make Dinamo Batumi a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Batumi v Samgurali~~2.13 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 53 v 38~~2 v 6

~~The market · Dinamo Batumi win~~60% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Batumi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Batumi win	52%	60%	−8
Draw	22%	22%	0
Samgurali win	26%	17%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	68%	58%	+10
Both teams to score	67%	55%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	87%	79%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	47%	37%	+10
Dinamo Batumi or draw	74%	83%	−9
Dinamo Batumi clean sheet	24%	–	–
Samgurali clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.9 3.7 3.1 1 5.5 9.4 6.2 3.0 2 6.3 8.8 6.3 3.1 3 4.4 6.1 4.4 2.1 4 2.4 3.3 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Batumi down, Samgurali across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,067 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Batumi at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Samgurali away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.13 goals for Dinamo Batumi, 1.45 for Samgurali. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAM 0–4 DIN · DIN 3–1 SAM · SAM 1–1 DIN · SAM 4–0 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 4 Sept

DINAMO BATUMI

WWDWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–1

SAMGURALI

LLLLWW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Tbilisi	30	+18	54
2	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
3	FC Iberia 1999	29	+11	52
4	Rustavi	30	+10	52
5	Dila	29	+4	40
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37
8	Gagra	30	−17	30
9	Spaeri	30	−11	27
10	Meshakhte	29	−27	17