Dinamo Batumi v Dinamo Tbilisi prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi DINAMO TBILISI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Tbilisi win~~38%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.636

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Tbilisi win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Tbilisi 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Batumi v Dinamo Tbilisi
7′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Tbilisi 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 36–26–39
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
45′SECOND HALF Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
46′HALF-TIME Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: santos leo · Off: Paris Psaltis Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Mate Vatsadze · Off: Barnes Osei Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Batumi · On: A. Eshetiye · Off: guram japaridze Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Dinamo Batumi · On: Levan Shengelia · Off: Tornike Kirkitadze Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Lyes Houri · Off: Jaba Kankava Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Dinamo Batumi
66′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Sandro Altunashvili · Dinamo Batumi
68′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Dinamo Batumi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dinamo Batumi · On: Paulo Vítor · Off: Luka Tsulukidze Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dinamo Batumi · On: Nika Kalandarishvili · Off: Ivan Turitsov Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Dinamo Batumi 1–1 Dinamo Tbilisi · Maurides Roque Junior
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Dinamo Batumi · On: Enes Mahmutovic · Off: Yahya·Kalley Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Dinamo Tbilisi · On: Matthew Gbomadu · Off: Giorgi Kharaishvili Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dinamo Tbilisi
91′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Dinamo Batumi
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi
FTDinamo Batumi 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi · Dinamo Tbilisi win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dinamo Batumi win35%

Draw26%

Dinamo Tbilisi win38%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueBatumi Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Batumi

4-2-3-1

Dinamo Tbilisi

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Tbilisi

21Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	+15	48
4	Dinamo Batumi	27	+10	47

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Batumi

4-2-3-1

13 N. Kalichava

29 I. Turitsov

23 M. Kobakhidze

24 D. Carlson

5 Y. Kalley

39 G. Japaridze

8 S. Altunashvili

22 T. Kirkitadze

18 I. Oulad Omar

20 L. Tsulukidze

9 Maurides

Coach · Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Substitutes

1 · L. Kupatadze

6 · A. Mylchenko

7 · D. Mandricenco

11 · V. Paulo

15 · E. Mahmutovic

16 · A. Eshetiye

19 · N. Kalandarishvili

27 · L. Shengelia

35 · R. Chiteishvili

Dinamo Tbilisi

4-3-3

20 L. Flores

17 P. Psaltis

27 N. Kurdic

4 N. Ugrekhelidze

13 M. Pourzitidis

8 Welton

23 J. Kankava

24 B. Osei

7 K. Doltmurziev

22 N. Ninua

10 G. Kharaishvili

Coach · Vladimer Kakashvili

Substitutes

3 · A. Kalandadze

6 · Leo Santos

11 · M. Vatsadze

14 · M. Do Couto

16 · N. Tkalia

33 · L. Houri

34 · M. Gbomadu

40 · M. Gagvishvili

42 · S. Tartarashvili

Our number · dinamo tbilisi winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

38% The market28%

Us38%

~~Market~~28%

We make Dinamo Tbilisi a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo tbilisi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. The market has gone from 33% to 28% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Batumi win	35%	46%	−10
Draw	26%	27%	0
Dinamo Tbilisi win	38%	28%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	0
Dinamo Batumi or draw	62%	72%	−11
Dinamo Batumi clean sheet	23%	–	–
Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.5 7.0 6.0 3.0 1 6.6 12.1 8.3 4.2 2 5.4 7.9 5.9 3.0 3 2.6 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Batumi down, Dinamo Tbilisi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,058 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 138 played.

Head to head

23 previous meetings, 2.87 goals a meeting; 13 of 23 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Batumi at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Tbilisi away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Dinamo Batumi, 1.52 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

23 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.87

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 23

~~Both scored~~16 of 23

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–1 DIN · DIN 2–2 DIN · DIN 2–2 DIN · DIN 1–1 DIN

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga

DINAMO BATUMI

WWWWDW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 3–2

DINAMO TBILISI

WDDWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rustavi	28	+11	49
2	FC Iberia 1999	28	+9	49
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	27	+15	48
4	Dinamo Batumi	27	+10	47
5	Dila	28	+6	40
6	Torpedo Kutaisi	28	+9	37
7	Samgurali	27	−14	32
8	Gagra	27	−12	29
9	Spaeri	28	−9	26
10	Meshakhte	28	−25	17