Dila v FC Iberia 1999 prediction · Erovnuli Liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30

Dila 0–2 FC Iberia 1999 DILA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dila win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.699

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.617

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dila win at 40%.
0′KICK-OFF Dila v FC Iberia 1999
2′Much as we predicted: Dila was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' FC Iberia 1999
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' FC Iberia 1999
41′We said Dila at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–67
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dila win 35%)
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Dila 0–1 FC Iberia 1999
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dila win: 40% at kick-off, 11% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' FC Iberia 1999 win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 39%)
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
42′FC Iberia 1999 score on 42′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Dila win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′SECOND HALF Dila 0–1 FC Iberia 1999
46′We said Dila at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
46′HALF-TIME Dila 0–1 FC Iberia 1999
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Dila
51′We said Dila at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Dila 0–2 FC Iberia 1999
54′FC Iberia 1999 find the net on 51′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dila win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dila · On: Giorgi Jalaghonia · Off: Mouhamed Diouf
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dila · On: Lynden Edhart · Off: Otar Parulava
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dila · On: badri gogoberishvili · Off: Mohamed Kanté
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Dila
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Iberia 1999 · On: Zviad Natchkebia · Off: Lucas Oliveira Brune
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Iberia 1999 · On: Giorgi Kutsia · Off: Nikoloz Dadiani
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Dila · On: Ramaric Etou · Off: araujo joao
85′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Dila · On: Aviel Zargari · Off: Nelson Mike Puketi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Iberia 1999 · On: Giorgi Beridze · Off: Jemali-Giorgi Jinjolava
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Dila
88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Iberia 1999 · On: Andria Bartishvili · Off: nika sikharulashvili
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Iberia 1999 · On: Ibrahim Alhassan Abdullahi · Off: Bakar Kardava
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Dila
FTFULL TIME Dila 0–2 FC Iberia 1999
FTDila 0–2 FC Iberia 1999 · Dila win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dila are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dila 40%, draw 28%, FC Iberia 1999 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dila v FC Iberia 1999Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Dila win40%

Draw28%

FC Iberia 1999 win32%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueTengiz Burjanadze Stadium

Line-ups

Dila

3-4-1-2

FC Iberia 1999

4-2-1-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dila

FC Iberia 1999

9Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Iberia 1999	28	+9	49
5	Dila	28	+6	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dila

3-4-1-2

12 L. Sanikidze

2 T. Kikabidze

13 João Araújo

5 Nelson Mike Puketi

16 M. Sanyang

17 B. Anoff

8 L. Menteshashvili

24 Mouhamed Diouf

10 O. Parulava

22 Shota Shekiladze

9 K. Kefing

Coach · A. Vavalis

Substitutes

25 · L. Yarbrough

7 · Aviel Zargari

37 · L. Edhart

33 · R. Etou

19 · B. Gogoberishvili

14 · G. Jalaghonia

15 · G. Kobakhidze

31 · Mate Makrakhidze

29 · A. Olatunji

FC Iberia 1999

4-2-1-3

31 G. Makaridze

40 G. Kobuladze

25 A. Amisulashvili

4 V. Selimović

5 J. Jinjolava

6 N. Dadiani

8 B. Kardava

19 N. Sikharulashvili

18 Lucas Brune

9 A. Dzagania

33 marc jean tiboue

Coach · A. Demchenko

Substitutes

11 · A. Bartishvili

26 · G. Beridze

30 · N. Bochorishvili

3 · P. Cancar

17 · S. Ende

27 · G. Kutsia

1 · T. Megrelishvili

10 · Z. Natchkebia

14 · I. Alhassan

Our number · dila winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Dila a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dila v FC Iberia 1999~~1.38 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 49~~5 v 4

~~The market · Dila win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dila win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dila win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
FC Iberia 1999 win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	48%	0
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
Dila or draw	68%	64%	+4
Dila clean sheet	30%	–	–
FC Iberia 1999 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.8 8.3 5.5 2.3 1 9.5 13.2 7.4 3.0 2 7.1 8.4 5.0 2.1 3 3.3 3.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dila down, FC Iberia 1999 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,064 Erovnuli Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 144 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dila at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Iberia 1999 away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Dila, 1.21 for FC Iberia 1999. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCI 2–1 DIL · DIL 0–1 FCI · FCI 1–0 DIL · FCI 1–3 DIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga this season · since 5 Sept

DILA

WWDLWL1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 1–3

FC IBERIA 1999

LWWWLW0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Batumi	29	+13	53
2	Rustavi	29	+12	52
3	Dinamo Tbilisi	29	+16	51
4	FC Iberia 1999	28	+9	49
5	Dila	28	+6	40
6	Samgurali	29	−9	38
7	Torpedo Kutaisi	29	+8	37
8	Gagra	29	−17	29
9	Spaeri	29	−11	26
10	Meshakhte	29	−27	17