Telavi v Kolkheti Poti prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Telavi 1–1 Kolkheti Poti TELAVI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Telavi win~~42%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.772

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.852

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Telavi win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Telavi 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
1′KICK-OFF Telavi v Kolkheti Poti
8′We said Telavi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–59
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Telavi 0–1 Kolkheti Poti
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Telavi win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Kolkheti Poti win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Telavi win 42%)
9′Kolkheti Poti find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Kolkheti Poti
26′We said Telavi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Kolkheti Poti
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–63
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Telavi win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Telavi
45′SECOND HALF Telavi 0–1 Kolkheti Poti
46′We said Telavi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
46′HALF-TIME Telavi 0–1 Kolkheti Poti
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Telavi · On: N. Galakhvaridze · Off: D. Gogotishvili
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Telavi · On: D. Skhirtladze · Off: K. Asamoah
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Telavi · On: G. Talakhashvili · Off: L. Salukvadze
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Telavi · On: A. Ananidze · Off: A. Datuashvili
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Kolkheti Poti
64′We said Telavi at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kolkheti Poti · On: N. Kapanadze · Off: D. Gotsiridze
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Telavi · On: G. Chkhetiani · Off: E. Parkinashvili
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Telavi win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Telavi 1–1 Kolkheti Poti
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Telavi win: 42% at kick-off, 15% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Kolkheti Poti win 85%)
78′A goal for Telavi on 78′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–75–11
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Telavi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kolkheti Poti · On: A. Chkhaidze · Off: Gabriel Ramos
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kolkheti Poti · On: A. Avaliani · Off: D. Pachulia
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Telavi
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Telavi win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Kolkheti Poti
94′1–1 at the end. Our 42% on Telavi misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Telavi 1–1 Kolkheti Poti
FTTelavi 1–1 Kolkheti Poti · Telavi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Telavi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Telavi 42%, draw 29%, Kolkheti Poti 29%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Telavi v Kolkheti PotiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Telavi win42%

Draw29%

Kolkheti Poti win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueKavkasioni Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Telavi

Kolkheti Poti

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Telavi	29	+6	46
9	Kolkheti Poti	29	+3	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · telavi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market51%

Us42%

~~Market~~51%

We make Telavi a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Telavi v Kolkheti Poti~~1.33 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 31~~2 v 9

~~The market · Telavi win~~51% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Telavi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Telavi win	42%	51%	−9
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Kolkheti Poti win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Telavi or draw	71%	78%	−7
Telavi clean sheet	36%	–	–
Kolkheti Poti clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.4 9.2 5.1 1 11.8 13.2 6.5 2.3 2 8.2 8.3 4.3 3 3.7 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Telavi down, Kolkheti Poti across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,017 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Telavi at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kolkheti Poti away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Telavi, 1.04 for Kolkheti Poti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KOL 1–1 TEL · TEL 3–1 KOL · KOL 0–1 TEL · KOL 0–1 TEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept

TELAVI

LDDDWL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–2

KOLKHETI POTI

WDWDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	29	+7	53
2	Telavi	29	+6	46
3	Shturmi	29	+6	46
4	Merani Martvili	29	−3	40
5	Samtredia	29	+10	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	29	−9	38
7	Sioni	29	−1	36
8	Odishi 1919	29	−11	35
9	Kolkheti Poti	29	+3	31
10	Gori	29	−8	30