Sioni v Gori prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Sioni 1–0 Gori SIONI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sioni win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.377

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sioni win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sioni was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–25
1′KICK-OFF Sioni v Gori
17′Sioni find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–9
17′We published Sioni at 50%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–9
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sioni 1–0 Gori
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Sioni win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
45′HALF-TIME Sioni 1–0 Gori
46′SECOND HALF Sioni 1–0 Gori
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Sioni
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Sioni
56′We published Sioni at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Sioni win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sioni · On: G. Chachua · Off: Z. Tsitskishvili
71′We published Sioni at 50%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gori · On: N. Ninidze · Off: E. Tabatadze
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gori · On: G. Alimbarashvili · Off: G. Gazdeliani
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gori · On: G. Mamulashvili · Off: J. Owusu-Ansa
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Gori · On: A. Bafuri · Off: S. Akhalkatsi
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sioni · On: R. Gazdeliani · Off: A. Tcholokava
79′We published Sioni at 50%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Sioni win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
86′We published Sioni at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Gori · On: L. Otinashvili · Off: A. Sirbiladze
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sioni · On: D. Assaye · Off: G. Iakobidze
FTFULL TIME Sioni 1–0 Gori
FTSioni 1–0 Gori · Sioni win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sioni are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sioni 50%, draw 26%, Gori 25%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sioni v GoriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sioni win50%

Draw26%

Gori win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueTamaz Stepania Stadium

Line-ups

Sioni

Gori

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sioni

Gori

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sioni	28	−2	33
9	Gori	28	−7	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sioni

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Kurdadze

2 G. Gaprindashvili

13 G. Kakulia

25 V. Kilasonia

3 T. Dundua

16 G. Ubilava

14 Leo Silva

24 S. Abdullahi

30 Z. Tsitskishvili

9 G. Iakobidze

20 A. Tcholokava

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · L. Avaliani

4 · T. Mindiashvili

6 · A. Huskic

10 · N. Tskhovrebashvili

11 · D. Assaye

18 · T. Guliashvili

19 · R. Gazdeliani

21 · G. Jeladze

23 · G. Chachua

Gori

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Puladze

2 L. Elbakidze

16 N. Okropiridze

23 V. Botchorishvili

3 S. Akhalkatsi

15 B. Hamondi

27 G. Gazdeliani

14 G. Kurmashvili

8 E. Tabatadze

22 J. Owusu-Ansa

13 A. Sirbiladze

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · E. Guluashvili

5 · G. Mamulashvili

6 · U. Khubuluri

7 · N. Ninidze

10 · G. Alimbarashvili

17 · A. Bafuri

18 · G. Bekadze

25 · L. Otinashvili

35 · A. Koberidze

Our number · sioni winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Sioni a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sioni v Gori~~1.67 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 30~~8 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sioni win	50%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Gori win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Sioni or draw	75%	–	–
Sioni clean sheet	34%	–	–
Gori clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.4 6.3 3.8 1 9.9 12.0 6.1 2.3 2 8.7 9.2 5.0 3 4.9 5.2 2.8 4 2.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sioni down, Gori across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,012 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sioni at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Gori away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Sioni, 1.10 for Gori. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GOR 4–1 SIO · GOR 1–0 SIO · SIO 1–1 GOR · GOR 0–0 SIO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 29 Aug

SIONI

WDDLLL2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3

GORI

WWDLDW3–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	28	+6	50
2	Telavi	28	+7	46
3	Shturmi	28	+8	46
4	Samtredia	28	+11	40
5	Merani Martvili	28	−5	37
6	Odishi 1919	28	−7	35
7	Aragvi Dusheti	28	−10	35
8	Sioni	28	−2	33
9	Gori	28	−7	30
10	Kolkheti Poti	28	−1	28