Shturmi v Sioni prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Shturmi 1–0 Sioni SHTURMI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shturmi win~~45%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.461

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.382

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shturmi win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shturmi was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Shturmi v Sioni
31′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Shturmi · On: D. Kardava · Off: I. Lekvtadze
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Shturmi win 38%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Shturmi win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Shturmi 0–0 Sioni
46′SECOND HALF Shturmi 0–0 Sioni
49′We said Shturmi at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–45–22
58′We said Shturmi at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
58′Shturmi score on 58′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–3
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Shturmi 1–0 Sioni
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Shturmi win: 45% at kick-off, 80% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Shturmi win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 51%)
59′We published Shturmi at 45%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–16–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sioni · On: A. Tcholokava · Off: N. Tskhovrebashvili
70′We published Shturmi at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Shturmi win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Shturmi · On: G. Omarashvili · Off: L. Kemoklidze
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sioni · On: G. Chachua · Off: Z. Tsitskishvili
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sioni · On: N. Tutashvili · Off: G. Kakulia
78′We published Shturmi at 45%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Sioni
85′We published Shturmi at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Shturmi win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shturmi · On: L. Berozashvili · Off: L. Papava
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shturmi · On: L. Butskhrikidze · Off: T. Shekiladze
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sioni · On: T. Guliashvili · Off: G. Ubilava
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sioni · On: T. Mindiashvili · Off: S. Abdullahi
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Shturmi
FTFULL TIME Shturmi 1–0 Sioni
FTShturmi 1–0 Sioni · Shturmi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shturmi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shturmi 45%, draw 29%, Sioni 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Shturmi v SioniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shturmi win45%

Draw29%

Sioni win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueSartichala Central Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shturmi

Sioni

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Shturmi	29	+6	46
7	Sioni	29	−1	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shturmi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market50%

Us45%

~~Market~~50%

We make Shturmi a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shturmi v Sioni~~1.37 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 46 v 36~~3 v 7

~~The market · Shturmi win~~50% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shturmi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shturmi win	45%	50%	−5
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Sioni win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	68%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	24%	−2
Shturmi or draw	73%	77%	−4
Shturmi clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sioni clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 8.9 4.7 1 12.3 13.1 6.2 2.1 2 8.7 8.4 4.2 3 4.0 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shturmi down, Sioni across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,017 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shturmi at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sioni away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Shturmi, 0.99 for Sioni. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SIO 0–1 SHT · SHT 0–2 SIO · SIO 1–1 SHT · SIO 2–1 SHT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept

SHTURMI

WWDWWL4–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–3

SIONI

DDLLLW3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	29	+7	53
2	Telavi	29	+6	46
3	Shturmi	29	+6	46
4	Merani Martvili	29	−3	40
5	Samtredia	29	+10	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	29	−9	38
7	Sioni	29	−1	36
8	Odishi 1919	29	−11	35
9	Kolkheti Poti	29	+3	31
10	Gori	29	−8	30