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Shturmi v Kolkheti Poti

Shturmi

2–0Full time

Kolkheti Poti

Erovnuli Liga 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Sartichala Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Shturmi 2–0 Kolkheti Poti SHTURMI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shturmi win~~41%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.526

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.453

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shturmi win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Shturmi was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Shturmi v Kolkheti Poti
8′Much as we predicted: Shturmi was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Shturmi
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Kolkheti Poti
45′A goal for Shturmi on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Shturmi 1–0 Kolkheti Poti
45′HALF-TIME Shturmi 1–0 Kolkheti Poti
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 36% now
46′SECOND HALF Shturmi 1–0 Kolkheti Poti
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
54′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Kolkheti Poti · On: A. Avaliani · Off: D. Pachulia
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Kolkheti Poti · On: G. Ramosi · Off: T. Oloko-Obi
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Shturmi win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Kolkheti Poti
64′🟥 RED CARD · 62' G. Kharebava · Kolkheti Poti
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kolkheti Poti · On: A. Giunashvili · Off: S. Kharchilava
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Shturmi · On: G. Vekua · Off: G. Omarashvili
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shturmi · On: L. Butskhrikidze · Off: T. Shekiladze
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kolkheti Poti · On: G. Metuk · Off: L. Kvaratskhelia
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Shturmi 1–0 Kolkheti Poti
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Shturmi 2–0 Kolkheti Poti · D. Kardava
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Shturmi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' D. Kardava · Shturmi
FTFULL TIME Shturmi 2–0 Kolkheti Poti
FTShturmi 2–0 Kolkheti Poti · Shturmi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Shturmi win41%

Draw31%

Kolkheti Poti win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Sartichala Central Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Shturmi

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Gurgenidze

15 V. Khositashvili

40 L. Nozadze

28 Z. Sekhniashvili

12 B. Mosashvili

33 D. Kardava

10 G. Omarashvili

23 N. Talakhadze

22 I. Lekvtadze

30 T. Shekiladze

11 L. Papava

Coach · Levan Nebieridze

Substitutes

25 · M. Tabeshadze

9 · L. Butskhrikidze

14 · L. Berozashvili

17 · G. Vekua

19 · I. Katsiashvili

27 · N. Kvelashvili

34 · G. Kakhishvili

36 · D. Abukhbaia

39 · A. Khizanishvili

Kolkheti Poti

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Nanava

3 S. Kharchilava

4 J. Dvalishvili

40 G. Chaduneli

2 L. Kvaratskhelia

12 T. Oloko-Obi

5 N. Abuladze

23 V. Goncalves

10 G. Kharebava

7 D. Pachulia

8 D. Gotsiridze

Coach · Dato

Substitutes

32 · L. Tskhadaia

6 · Y. Musa

9 · A. Avaliani

18 · D. Inaishvili

20 · D. Andghuladze

22 · G. Ramosi

24 · A. Giunashvili

26 · G. Metuk

35 · J. Mensah

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shturmi

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Gurgenidze

15 V. Khositashvili

40 L. Nozadze

28 Z. Sekhniashvili

12 B. Mosashvili

33 D. Kardava

10 G. Omarashvili

23 N. Talakhadze

22 I. Lekvtadze

30 T. Shekiladze

11 L. Papava

Coach · Levan Nebieridze

Substitutes

25 · M. Tabeshadze

9 · L. Butskhrikidze

14 · L. Berozashvili

17 · G. Vekua

19 · I. Katsiashvili

27 · N. Kvelashvili

34 · G. Kakhishvili

36 · D. Abukhbaia

39 · A. Khizanishvili

Kolkheti Poti

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Nanava

3 S. Kharchilava

4 J. Dvalishvili

40 G. Chaduneli

2 L. Kvaratskhelia

12 T. Oloko-Obi

5 N. Abuladze

23 V. Goncalves

10 G. Kharebava

7 D. Pachulia

8 D. Gotsiridze

Coach · Dato

Substitutes

32 · L. Tskhadaia

6 · Y. Musa

9 · A. Avaliani

18 · D. Inaishvili

20 · D. Andghuladze

22 · G. Ramosi

24 · A. Giunashvili

26 · G. Metuk

35 · J. Mensah

Our number · shturmi winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Shturmi a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · shturmi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shturmi win	41%	45%	−4
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Kolkheti Poti win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	36%	46%	−11
Both teams to score	42%	51%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	70%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	17%	26%	−10
Shturmi or draw	72%	73%	−1
Shturmi clean sheet	40%	–	–
Kolkheti Poti clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 13.3 10.3 5.3 1 13.3 13.7 6.0 2 8.4 7.6 3.6 3 3.4 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shturmi down, Kolkheti Poti across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shturmi at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kolkheti Poti away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Shturmi, 0.93 for Kolkheti Poti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KOL 0–0 SHT · SHT 1–0 KOL · KOL 1–1 SHT

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2

SHTURMI

LLWWDW0–1 · 1–3 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

KOLKHETI POTI

LDWDWD2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	27	+7	50
2	Shturmi	27	+6	43
3	Telavi	27	+4	43
4	Samtredia	27	+8	37
5	Merani Martvili	27	−4	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	−7	35
7	Sioni	27	+1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	−8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	+1	28
10	Gori	27	−8	27