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Samtredia v Sioni

Samtredia

3–0Full time

Sioni

Erovnuli Liga 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Samtredia 3–0 Sioni SAMTREDIA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Samtredia win~~52%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Samtredia win at 52%.
4′KICK-OFF Samtredia v Sioni
7′Little has changed for our model: Samtredia 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–23–25
17′⚽ GOAL · 15' Samtredia 1–0 Sioni
28′15′ and it is 1–0: O. Gagnidze on the scoresheet for Samtredia. 1–0 · 76–16–8
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Samtredia win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
40′PENALTY MISSED · 40' Sioni
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Samtredia
45′HALF-TIME Samtredia 1–0 Sioni
46′SECOND HALF Samtredia 1–0 Sioni
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sioni · On: A. Tcholokava · Off: Kevin
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Sioni
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Samtredia 2–0 Sioni
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Samtredia 3–0 Sioni
69′⚽ GOAL · 67' Samtredia 3–0 Sioni
70′⚽ GOAL · 67' Samtredia 3–0 Sioni
72′⚽ GOAL · 67' Samtredia 3–0 Sioni
73′⚽ GOAL · 67' Samtredia 3–0 Sioni · J. Cordero Gonzalez (assist T. Odikadze)
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Samtredia · On: T. Chikovani · Off: O. Gagnidze
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Samtredia · On: E. Ayuk · Off: T. Odikadze
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sioni · On: N. Tskhovrebashvili · Off: Z. Sitchinava
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Samtredia · On: L. Tsulaia · Off: G. Mandzhgaladze
89′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Samtredia · On: T. Jangidze · Off: M. Gaye
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sioni · On: S. Abdulahi · Off: G. Gaprindashvili
FTFULL TIME Samtredia 3–0 Sioni
FTSamtredia 3–0 Sioni · Samtredia win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Samtredia win52%

Draw23%

Sioni win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Samtredia

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Lazarevs

2 G. Gvishiani

16 D. Dobranskyi

25 M. Gaye

33 G. Latsabidze

20 O. Gagnidze

7 G. Mandzhgaladze

32 B. Lopez

11 T. Odikadze

37 D. Gvasalia

10 J. Cordero Gonzalez

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Samkharadze

4 · L. Kaladze

6 · E. Ayuk

8 · E. Barrios

15 · G. Kveladze

19 · T. Jangidze

26 · L. Gogitadze

31 · L. Tsulaia

40 · T. Chikovani

Sioni

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Kurdadze

6 A. Huskic

25 V. Kilasonia

3 T. Dundua

2 G. Gaprindashvili

8 Z. Sitchinava

14 Leo Silva

16 G. Ubilava

30 Z. Tsitskishvili

9 G. Iakobidze

39 Kevin

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · L. Avaliani

4 · T. Mindiashvili

10 · N. Tskhovrebashvili

13 · G. Kakulia

15 · N. Tutashvili

19 · R. Gazdeliani

20 · A. Tcholokava

21 · G. Jeladze

24 · S. Abdullahi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Samtredia

Formation not confirmed

12 V. Lazarevs

2 G. Gvishiani

16 D. Dobranskyi

25 M. Gaye

33 G. Latsabidze

20 O. Gagnidze

7 G. Mandzhgaladze

32 B. Lopez

11 T. Odikadze

37 D. Gvasalia

10 J. Cordero Gonzalez

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Samkharadze

4 · L. Kaladze

6 · E. Ayuk

8 · E. Barrios

15 · G. Kveladze

19 · T. Jangidze

26 · L. Gogitadze

31 · L. Tsulaia

40 · T. Chikovani

Sioni

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Kurdadze

6 A. Huskic

25 V. Kilasonia

3 T. Dundua

2 G. Gaprindashvili

8 Z. Sitchinava

14 Leo Silva

16 G. Ubilava

30 Z. Tsitskishvili

9 G. Iakobidze

39 Kevin

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · L. Avaliani

4 · T. Mindiashvili

10 · N. Tskhovrebashvili

13 · G. Kakulia

15 · N. Tutashvili

19 · R. Gazdeliani

20 · A. Tcholokava

21 · G. Jeladze

24 · S. Abdullahi

Our number · samtredia winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

52% The market58%

Us52%

~~Market~~58%

We make Samtredia a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · samtredia win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samtredia win	52%	58%	−6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Sioni win	25%	18%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	54%	+8
Both teams to score	61%	53%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	83%	75%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	40%	33%	+7
Samtredia or draw	75%	82%	−7
Samtredia clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sioni clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 4.7 3.4 1 7.2 10.4 6.2 2.6 2 7.4 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.8 5.9 3.7 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samtredia down, Sioni across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.57 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Samtredia at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sioni away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Samtredia, 1.27 for Sioni. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SIO 3–2 SAM · SAM 2–1 SIO · SIO 3–0 SAM · SAM 2–1 SIO

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2

SAMTREDIA

WWWWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 6–1 · 0–1 · 5–0

SIONI

WWDDLL1–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	27	+7	50
2	Shturmi	27	+6	43
3	Telavi	27	+4	43
4	Samtredia	27	+8	37
5	Merani Martvili	27	−4	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	−7	35
7	Sioni	27	+1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	−8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	+1	28
10	Gori	27	−8	27