Samtredia v Shturmi prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SamtrediaDrawShturmi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Samtredia 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Samtredia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Samtredia 48%, draw 27%, Shturmi 25%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Samtredia v ShturmiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Samtredia win48%

Draw27%

Shturmi win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueErosi Manjgaladze Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Samtredia

Shturmi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Shturmi	30	+7	49
5	Samtredia	30	+9	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · samtredia winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Samtredia a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Samtredia v Shturmi~~1.48 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 40 v 49~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Samtredia win	48%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Shturmi win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Samtredia or draw	75%	–	–
Samtredia clean sheet	38%	–	–
Shturmi clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.6 7.9 4.2 1 12.1 12.7 5.9 2 9.3 8.8 4.3 3 4.6 4.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Samtredia down, Shturmi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,022 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.0% of games this season, across 150 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Samtredia at home: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shturmi away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Samtredia, 0.98 for Shturmi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SHT 0–1 SAM · SAM 2–1 SHT · SAM 1–1 SHT · SHT 3–2 SAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 12 Sept

SAMTREDIA

WLWWLL6–1 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

SHTURMI

WDWWLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	30	+7	54
2	Shturmi	30	+7	49
3	Telavi	30	+6	47
4	Merani Martvili	30	−6	40
5	Samtredia	30	+9	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	30	−9	39
7	Odishi 1919	30	−8	38
8	Sioni	30	−2	36
9	Gori	30	−7	33
10	Kolkheti Poti	30	+3	32