Samtredia v Aragvi Dusheti

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Samtredia win at 62%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Samtredia was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
3. 1′KICK-OFF Samtredia v Aragvi Dusheti
4. 5′Much as we predicted: Samtredia was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–21–17
5. 28′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Aragvi Dusheti · On: I. Zaridze · Off: P. Antwi Corrected
6. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Aragvi Dusheti
7. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Samtredia
8. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Samtredia win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
9. 43′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–32–18
10. 45′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–18
11. 45′HALF-TIME Samtredia 0–0 Aragvi Dusheti
12. 46′SECOND HALF Samtredia 0–0 Aragvi Dusheti
13. 55′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–39–17
14. 55′We expected about 3.3 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 44–39–17
15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Samtredia win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
16. 62′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
17. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Samtredia win 39%)
18. 68′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–52–14
19. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Aragvi Dusheti · On: T. Bzekalava · Off: S. Suleimani
20. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Samtredia · On: T. Chikovani · Off: T. Odikadze
21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Samtredia · On: L. Gogitadze · Off: D. Gvasalia
22. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Samtredia win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
23. 73′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
24. 77′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
25. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Samtredia win: 62% at kick-off, 21% now
26. 81′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–74–8
27. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aragvi Dusheti · On: G. Pipia · Off: P. Antwi
28. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aragvi Dusheti · On: L. Kobakhidze · Off: S. Dvalishvili
29. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Aragvi Dusheti · On: I. Zaridze · Off: E. Opongi
30. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Samtredia · On: L. Patarkatsishvili · Off: G. Kveladze
31. 84′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–81–6
32. 84′A goal for Aragvi Dusheti on 84′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
33. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Samtredia 0–1 Aragvi Dusheti
34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Samtredia win: 62% at kick-off, 1% now
35. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Aragvi Dusheti win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
36. 85′We said Samtredia at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
37. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Samtredia · On: E. Barrios · Off: B. Lopez
38. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Samtredia
39. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Samtredia
40. FTFULL TIME Samtredia 0–1 Aragvi Dusheti
41. FTSamtredia 0–1 Aragvi Dusheti · Samtredia win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.