Odishi 1919 v Merani Martvili prediction · Erovnuli Liga 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Odishi 1919 3–0 Merani Martvili ODISHI 1919 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Odishi 1919 win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Odishi 1919 win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Odishi 1919 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Odishi 1919 v Merani Martvili
2′A goal for Odishi 1919 on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
2′We said Odishi 1919 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Odishi 1919 1–0 Merani Martvili
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Odishi 1919 win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
3′L. Kutalia scores for Odishi 1919 on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
5′Merani Martvili are down to ten from 4′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 72–17–11
5′🟥 RED CARD · 4' Merani Martvili
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Odishi 1919
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Merani Martvili
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Odishi 1919
24′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Merani Martvili · On: J. Esonkulov · Off: D. Khelaia
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Odishi 1919
27′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Odishi 1919 · On: N. Kavtaradze · Off: B. Jinjolava
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
37′We said Odishi 1919 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Odishi 1919
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Odishi 1919 win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Odishi 1919 1–0 Merani Martvili
46′SECOND HALF Odishi 1919 1–0 Merani Martvili
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Merani Martvili · On: G. Ugrekhelidze · Off: N. Chumburidze
52′Odishi 1919 score on 52′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Odishi 1919 2–0 Merani Martvili
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Odishi 1919 win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
53′We said Odishi 1919 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Odishi 1919 win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Merani Martvili · On: L. Tsulaia · Off: S. Kukhianidze
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Merani Martvili · On: R. Gagity · Off: R. Chkhaidze
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Merani Martvili · On: L. Gadilia · Off: L. Kadaria
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Odishi 1919 · On: A. Khunjgurua · Off: Z. Sikharulia
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Odishi 1919 · On: S. Lebedev · Off: O. Kvernadze
82′We said Odishi 1919 at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Odishi 1919
94′Odishi 1919 find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Odishi 1919 3–0 Merani Martvili
FTFULL TIME Odishi 1919 3–0 Merani Martvili
FTOdishi 1919 3–0 Merani Martvili · Odishi 1919 win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Odishi 1919 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Odishi 1919 46%, draw 27%, Merani Martvili 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Odishi 1919 v Merani MartviliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Odishi 1919 win46%

Draw27%

Merani Martvili win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Odishi 1919

Merani Martvili

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Erovnuli Liga 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Merani Martvili	29	−3	40
8	Odishi 1919	29	−11	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · odishi 1919 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Odishi 1919 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Odishi 1919 v Merani Martvili~~1.51 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 40~~8 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odishi 1919 win	46%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Merani Martvili win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Odishi 1919 or draw	72%	–	–
Odishi 1919 clean sheet	33%	–	–
Merani Martvili clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.2 7.6 4.6 1 10.4 12.5 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 8.9 4.9 3 4.2 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odishi 1919 down, Merani Martvili across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,017 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.8% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odishi 1919 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Merani Martvili away: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Odishi 1919, 1.12 for Merani Martvili. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MER 0–0 ODI · MER 1–2 ODI · ODI 1–2 MER · MER 2–3 ODI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2 this season · since 6 Sept

ODISHI 1919

LLWDWL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–4

MERANI MARTVILI

LWWLLW0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	29	+7	53
2	Telavi	29	+6	46
3	Shturmi	29	+6	46
4	Merani Martvili	29	−3	40
5	Samtredia	29	+10	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	29	−9	38
7	Sioni	29	−1	36
8	Odishi 1919	29	−11	35
9	Kolkheti Poti	29	+3	31
10	Gori	29	−8	30