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Odishi 1919 v Gareji

Odishi 1919

1–0Full time

Gareji

Erovnuli Liga 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Odishi 1919 1–0 Gareji GAREJI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gareji win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.661

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gareji win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gareji 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 35–26–39
1′KICK-OFF Odishi 1919 v Gareji
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Gareji win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Odishi 1919 0–0 Gareji
46′SECOND HALF Odishi 1919 0–0 Gareji
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gareji · On: B. Gugberidze · Off: I. Tchikaidze
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gareji · On: L. Kalandadze · Off: N. Grigalashvili
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Odishi 1919
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Odishi 1919 · On: O. Kvernadze · Off: S. Lebedev
64′We said Gareji at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–53–24
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gareji win: 39% at kick-off, 24% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Gareji · On: L. Tolordava · Off: G. Nikolaishvili
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Odishi 1919 · On: D. Gabisonia · Off: L. Kutalia
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Odishi 1919 · On: N. Kavtaradze · Off: B. Jinjolava
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Gareji · On: M. Kometiani · Off: D. Aidarashvili
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Odishi 1919 · On: M. Sila · Off: M. Antia
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Odishi 1919 · On: R. Chachua · Off: T. Gognadze
84′We said Gareji at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–84–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Gareji win: 39% at kick-off, 8% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Gareji
FTFULL TIME Odishi 1919 1–0 Gareji
FTOdishi 1919 1–0 Gareji · Gareji win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Odishi 1919 win34%

Draw27%

Gareji win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Odishi 1919

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Vajs

21 T. Gognadze

3 S. Sidamonidze

5 A. Batos

16 G. Akhaladze

8 Z. Sikharulia

13 L. Koberidze

20 B. Jinjolava

22 S. Lebedev

11 M. Antia

19 L. Kutalia

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · R. Chachua

9 · G. Gabedava

10 · N. Kavtaradze

17 · G. Jaburia

18 · O. Kvernadze

26 · D. Gabisonia

29 · M. Sila

30 · L. Lezhava

39 · S. Tchkadua

Gareji

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Bediashvili

8 G. Tsetskhladze

26 Z. Eradze

23 I. Gulisashvili

22 N. Grigalashvili

10 T. Babunadze

5 G. Nikolaishvili

15 T. Kapanadze

30 D. Zurabiani

14 I. Tchikaidze

11 D. Aidarashvili

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · L. Tolordava

7 · M. Kometiani

17 · L. Kalandadze

19 · A. Karalic

29 · B. Gugberidze

32 · G. Abramishvili

35 · G. Kikvadze

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Odishi 1919

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Vajs

21 T. Gognadze

3 S. Sidamonidze

5 A. Batos

16 G. Akhaladze

8 Z. Sikharulia

13 L. Koberidze

20 B. Jinjolava

22 S. Lebedev

11 M. Antia

19 L. Kutalia

Coach · –

Substitutes

2 · R. Chachua

9 · G. Gabedava

10 · N. Kavtaradze

17 · G. Jaburia

18 · O. Kvernadze

26 · D. Gabisonia

29 · M. Sila

30 · L. Lezhava

39 · S. Tchkadua

Gareji

Formation not confirmed

12 G. Bediashvili

8 G. Tsetskhladze

26 Z. Eradze

23 I. Gulisashvili

22 N. Grigalashvili

10 T. Babunadze

5 G. Nikolaishvili

15 T. Kapanadze

30 D. Zurabiani

14 I. Tchikaidze

11 D. Aidarashvili

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · L. Tolordava

7 · M. Kometiani

17 · L. Kalandadze

19 · A. Karalic

29 · B. Gugberidze

32 · G. Abramishvili

35 · G. Kikvadze

Our number · gareji winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Gareji a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Odishi 1919 win	34%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Gareji win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Odishi 1919 or draw	61%	–	–
Odishi 1919 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Gareji clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.1 8.9 6.7 3.1 1 8.1 12.8 8.2 3.9 2 5.7 7.6 5.3 2.5 3 2.5 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Odishi 1919 down, Gareji across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,007 Erovnuli Liga 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Erovnuli Liga 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Odishi 1919 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gareji away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Odishi 1919, 1.39 for Gareji. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GAR 1–2 ODI · ODI 1–1 GAR · GAR 1–1 ODI

Form · last six in Erovnuli Liga 2

ODISHI 1919

LLLLWD0–1 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

GAREJI

WWDLWL3–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Gareji	27	+7	50
2	Shturmi	27	+6	43
3	Telavi	27	+4	43
4	Samtredia	27	+8	37
5	Merani Martvili	27	−4	37
6	Aragvi Dusheti	27	−7	35
7	Sioni	27	+1	33
8	Odishi 1919	27	−8	32
9	Kolkheti Poti	27	+1	28
10	Gori	27	−8	27